Sources of Agricultural Growth and Its Determinants: A Regional Analysis of Uttar Pradesh

The paper examines the sources and patterns of growth in crop sector in Uttar Pradesh and identifies the drivers through panel data from 2004-05 to 2015-16. The results reveal that yield and diversification are found to be the sustainable sources of growth in crop sector in all regions except Bundelkhand. However, these sources have varied widely across the regions. The fixed effect regression model result show that irrigated area, electricity, road length, agricultural loan, agricultural market, fertilisers, tractor, literacy rate, planned expanses and normal rainfall are drivers of agricultural growth. Thus, infrastructural, institutional, technological and socio-economic factors ought to be improved through new policies.

本研究以印度北方邦（Uttar Pradesh）为研究区域，基于2004-05至2015-16年的面板数据，剖析该地区农作物种植业的增长源泉与增长模式，并识别其增长驱动因素。研究结果显示，除本德尔坎德（Bundelkhand）地区外，单产提升与种植结构多元化是所有区域农作物种植业增长的可持续源泉；不过不同区域的增长源泉差异显著。固定效应回归模型结果表明，灌溉面积、电力供应、道路里程、农业贷款、农产品市场、化肥投入、农用拖拉机保有量、识字率、计划支出与正常降雨量均为农业增长的驱动因素。因此，需通过出台新政策，优化基础设施、制度体系、技术水平与社会经济等各维度的发展条件。