Correlations.

This study attempts to explore the impact of external debt ($Debt), foreign reserves ($Reserves), and political stability & absence of violence/terrorism (PS&AVT) on the current financial crisis in Sri Lanka. Using data from 1996 to 2022 obtained from the World Bank (WB) and the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL), a regression analysis is conducted, with a composite variable named "CRISIS," which accounts for interest rate, inflation, currency devaluation adjusted to GDP growth, as the dependent variable. The findings indicate that, collectively, these predictors significantly contribute to explaining the variance in the financial crisis, although their impact is relatively minor. While the direct influence of PS&AVT on the financial crisis is not statistically significant, it indirectly affects the crisis through its considerable impact on debt and reserves. Granger causality tests showed predictive value for $Debt and $Reserve in relation to CRISIS, but the reverse relationship was not significant. Regression analysis using the error term and scatter plots supports the absence of endogeneity issues in the model. These findings suggest that while external debt and foreign reserves are more directly related to financial crises, political stability and the absence of violence/terrorism can influence the crisis indirectly through their effects on debt accumulation and reserve levels. This study represents a pioneering effort in investigating the impact of external debt, foreign reserves, and political stability on the financial crises in Sri Lanka. By utilizing a comprehensive dataset and applying a regression analysis, it sheds light on the complex interactions between these variables and their influence on the country’s financial stability.

本研究旨在探讨外债（external debt，$Debt）、外汇储备（foreign reserves，$Reserves）以及政治稳定且无暴力/恐怖主义（political stability & absence of violence/terrorism，PS&AVT）对斯里兰卡当前金融危机的影响。本研究使用源自世界银行（World Bank，WB）与斯里兰卡中央银行（Central Bank of Sri Lanka，CBSL）的1996至2022年数据集，构建了名为“CRISIS”的复合变量作为因变量，该变量综合涵盖利率、通货膨胀率、经GDP增速调整的货币贬值幅度，并采用回归分析方法开展实证检验。研究结果显示，上述解释变量整体可显著解释金融危机的变异程度，尽管其整体解释力度相对有限。尽管PS&AVT对金融危机的直接影响在统计学上并不显著，但它可通过对外债与外汇储备产生显著影响，进而间接作用于金融危机。格兰杰因果检验表明，$Debt与$Reserves对CRISIS具有预测价值，但反向因果关系并不显著。借助误差项回归分析与散点图验证，本模型不存在内生性问题。上述研究结果表明，尽管外债与外汇储备与金融危机的关联更为直接，但政治稳定且无暴力/恐怖主义可通过影响外债积累与外汇储备水平，间接干预金融危机的发生与发展。本研究是首次针对外债、外汇储备及政治稳定对斯里兰卡金融危机的影响开展的系统性探究，通过采用全面的数据集与回归分析方法，阐明了上述变量间的复杂交互关系及其对该国金融稳定的作用机制。