Seasonal mean near-surface (2m) temperature (°C) change from the median projected for 2066 - 2095, relative to present (1976 - 2005), for JJA season under the RCP 8.5 pathway

Seasonal (JJA) mean near-surface (2m) temperature (°C) change from the median projected for 2036-2065, relative to present (1976 - 2005), under the RCP 8.5 pathway for the southern African region. To generate the image, nine coarse General Circulation Models (GCM) are downscaled to a finer spatial resolution (0.44°x 0.44°) using the Rossby Centre regional model (RCA4) forcing its lateral boundaries. The model simulated daily temperature averages, which are used to generate projections of seasonal change. The projections are generated using the high (RCP8.5) pathway which associates CO2 concentrations of approximately 950ppm by the year 2100. The associated RMSD it calculated and shows the uncertainty range of the projected model simulated residual values, and gives a relative perspective of spatial areas associated with higher and lower projection uncertainties.

本数据集反映南非区域在典型浓度路径8.5（RCP 8.5）情景下，以1976-2005年为基准期，2036-2065年季节（JJA，即6月、7月、8月）平均近地表（2米）气温（℃）相对于该时段多模式投影中位数的变化量。为生成该可视化图像，研究采用罗斯比中心区域气候模式（RCA4），对9套粗分辨率全球环流模式（GCM）的结果进行降尺度处理，将空间分辨率提升至0.44°×0.44°，并以RCA4模式作为侧边界强迫场。该模式模拟的日平均气温数据被用于计算季节尺度的气温变化投影。本投影基于高排放情景（RCP8.5）生成，该情景预计到2100年大气二氧化碳浓度将达到约950ppm。研究同时计算了相关的均方根误差（RMSD），用以表征模式模拟残差投影的不确定性范围，并直观呈现投影不确定性高低的空间分布特征。