Public opinion and emerging powers: perceptions of the assertive diplomacies of South Africa, Brazil, and Turkey in national and regional surveys

This article investigates whether there is evidence of a “rise and fall” of emerging powers over the past 20 years in the eyes of public opinion. We compared several national and regional surveys on the foreign policies of South Africa, Brazil, and Turkey in search of signs of endorsement or disapproval of the more assertive foreign policies exercised by these countries. The results suggest a pronounced rise and decline for Ankara and some decline for Brasília; however, the results are inconclusive for Pretoria. The present work seeks to contribute to the debate on status and regional leadership by adding a public opinion and comparative regionalism perspective, in addition to offering a convenient summary of diplomatic surveys for countries of the Global South.

本文旨在探究，在过去20年间，从公众舆论的视角出发，是否存在新兴大国的“兴衰”迹象。本研究比对了多项针对南非、巴西与土耳其外交政策的全国性及区域性民调，以探寻公众对这三国所推行的愈发强势的外交政策持支持或反对态度的迹象。研究结果显示，土耳其（Ankara）的公众舆论呈现出显著的兴衰变化，巴西（Brasília）则出现了一定程度的下滑趋势；但针对南非（Pretoria）的相关结论仍不明确。本研究通过引入公众舆论与比较区域主义视角，为关于国家地位与区域领导力的学术讨论贡献了新的分析维度；同时也为全球南方国家的外交民调提供了一份便捷的综述资料。