Dyadic Analysis of Fragile Middle Eastern States and Humanitarian Implications of Restrictive covid-19 Policies – R Statistical Analysis

The covid-19 pandemic has pressured governments to respond with restrictive and health resource-oriented policies to contain the spread of the virus. The aim of thispaper is to assess differential policy implementation due to state fragility with a spatial scope of the Middle Eastern region. The policies implemented by the four strongestand six most fragile Middle Eastern countries were extracted from the CoronaNet Government Response Database and grouped into restrictive and resource-oriented categories. Clustering based on these categories informed dyadic analysis. Drawing from the Oxford Government Response Policy Tracker and covid-19 World SymptomSurvey, we found that fragile states tended to be characterized by a higher proportion of restrictive policies, lower government stringency, and lower compliance. The results identify sectors that would benefit most from humanitarian aid and raise the issue of whether restrictions are disproportionately implemented due to covert politicalagendas or lack of political and economic power.

新冠疫情（COVID-19）大流行迫使各国政府出台限制性及以医疗资源为导向的政策，以遏制病毒传播。本研究旨在以中东地区为空间研究范围，评估因国家脆弱性导致的政策实施差异。研究从新冠政府响应数据库（CoronaNet Government Response Database）中提取了中东地区4个实力最强国家与6个最脆弱国家所推行的政策，并将其划分为限制性政策与资源导向型政策两大类。基于上述分类开展的聚类分析为二元分析提供了支撑。本研究依托牛津政府响应政策追踪器（Oxford Government Response Policy Tracker）与新冠全球症状调查（COVID-19 World Symptom Survey）的数据开展分析，结果显示，脆弱国家往往具备限制性政策占比更高、政府管控严格度更低、民众政策依从性更差的特征。研究结果明确了最能从人道主义援助中获益的相关领域，并提出了值得探讨的议题：政策限制的实施是否因隐秘的政治议程，或是缺乏政治与经济实力而存在不均衡现象？