Data and Code for: Learning on the Job and the Cost of Business Cycles

We show that business cycles reduce welfare through a decrease in the average level of employment in a labor market search model with learning on-the-job and skill loss during unemployment. Empirically, unemployment and the job finding rate are negatively correlated. Since new jobs are the product of these two from the employment transition equation, business cycles imply fewer news jobs. Learning on-the-job implies that the resulting decrease in employment reduces aggregate human capital. This reduces incentives to post vacancies, further decreasing employment and human capital. We quantify this mechanism and find large output and welfare costs of business cycles.

我们基于包含在职学习（learning on-the-job）与失业期间技能丧失（skill loss during unemployment）的劳动力市场搜寻模型（labor market search model），证明经济周期可通过拉低平均就业水平损害社会福利。实证层面，失业率与职位找到率（job finding rate）呈负相关关系。由于就业转移方程（employment transition equation）中，新增岗位由这两个变量共同决定，因此经济周期会导致新增岗位数量减少。在职学习意味着由此引发的就业水平下降会降低总人力资本，这会削弱企业发布职位空缺的动机，进而进一步压低就业与人力资本水平。我们对这一作用机制开展量化分析，结果发现经济周期会带来显著的产出与福利损失。