Carabids data of Pterostichus flavofemoratus and Carabus depressus in the Gran Paradiso National Park (2006, 2007, 2012, 2013)

Understanding risks to biodiversity requires predictions of the spatial distribution of species adapting to changing ecosystems and, to that end, earth observations integrating field surveys prove essential as they provide key figures for assessing landscape-wide biodiversity scenarios. Here, we develop, and apply to a relevant case study, a method suited to merge earth/field observations with spatially explicit stochastic metapopulation models to study the near-term ecological dynamics of target species in complex terrains. Our framework incorporates the use of species distribution models for a reasoned estimation of the initial presence of the target species, and accounts for imperfect and incomplete detection of the species presence in the study area. It also uses a metapopulation fitness function derived from earth observation data subsuming the ecological niche of the target species. This framework is applied to contrast occupancy of two species of carabids (Pterostichus flavofemor...

要明晰生物多样性所面临的风险，需对适应生态系统动态变化的物种的空间分布开展预测；为此，整合野外调查的地球观测（earth observations）数据被证实至关重要，因其可为全域景观的生物多样性情景评估提供关键依据。本研究开发了一种可将地球/野外观测数据与空间显式随机集合种群模型（spatially explicit stochastic metapopulation models）相融合的方法，并将其应用于相关案例研究，以探究复杂地形中目标物种的短期生态动态。本研究框架借助物种分布模型（Species Distribution Models），对目标物种的初始分布状况进行合理估算，同时考量了研究区域内物种检测存在的不完善性与不完整性。该框架还采用了从涵盖目标物种生态位的地球观测数据中推导得到的集合种群适合度函数。本研究将该框架应用于两种步甲科（carabids）物种（Pterostichus flavofemor……）的占有率对比分析。