Can trait-based analyses of distribution change be transferred to new geographic areas?

Anthropogenic environmental change is having a major impact on biodiversity. By identifying traits that correlate with species range change, comparative studies can shed light on the driving mechanisms of this change; but such studies will be more useful for conservation if they have true predictive power – i.e., if their trait-based models can be transferred to new regions. We tested the ability of trait-based models to predict plant distribution change across seven geographic regions (Flanders and six regions in Britain) that varied in terms of land-cover and species composition. We discovered that transferability between regions was positively correlated with land cover similarity, and therefore conclude that trait-based models have potential for predicting broad scale changes in species distributions in regions that share similar land-cover composition.

This poster was presented at the 6th International Conference of the International Biogeography Society in Miami in January 2013.

人为环境变化正对生物多样性造成显著影响。通过识别与物种分布范围变化相关的性状（traits），比较研究可阐明此类变化的驱动机制；但若此类研究具备真正的预测能力——即其基于性状的模型可迁移至新区域，则其在生物保护工作中将更具应用价值。
本研究测试了基于性状的模型对七个地理区域（佛兰德斯及英国境内六个区域）的植物分布变化的预测能力，这些区域的土地覆盖（land-cover）与物种组成均有所差异。研究发现区域间的模型可迁移性与土地覆盖相似性呈正相关，因此我们得出结论：基于性状的模型具备预测土地覆盖组成相似区域内物种分布大尺度变化的潜力。

本海报于2013年1月在迈阿密举办的第6届国际生物地理学学会（International Biogeography Society）国际会议上展示。