Seasonal rainfall in subtropical montane cloud forests drives demographic fluctuations in a Green-backed Tit population

Montane birds are vulnerable to climate change. However, the mechanisms by which weather drives demographic processes in montane birds have seldom been investigated. We conducted a long-term study (2009–2019) on the Green-backed Tit (Parus monticolus), an insectivorous passerine, in the montane cloud forest of subtropical Taiwan. We explored the effects of weather variability on the productivity and survival of adult Green-backed Tits. Nest survival was negatively associated with seasonal rainfall during the breeding season (April–July) and was lower in early clutches than in late clutches. Higher typhoon-induced precipitation during the postbreeding period (July–September) was related to reduced adult survival, but neither summer temperature nor winter weather conditions were found to be related to adult bird survival. We developed a stochastic simulation model for Green-backed Tit population dynamics based on empirical data. We compared the simulated time-series and observed populatio...

山地鸟类极易受到气候变化的影响。然而，目前鲜有研究揭示气象条件如何调控山地鸟类的种群统计过程。本研究于2009年至2019年间，在亚热带台湾的山地云雾林内开展了针对食虫性雀形目鸟类——绿背山雀（Green-backed Tit，*Parus monticolus*）的长期定位研究。本研究探讨了气象变异对绿背山雀繁殖生产力与成体存活率的影响。研究发现，巢存活率与繁殖季（4月至7月）的季降雨量呈负相关，且早期产卵窝的巢存活率低于晚期产卵窝。繁殖后期（7月至9月）台风诱发的强降水与成体存活率下降显著相关，但夏季气温与冬季气象条件均未被发现与成鸟存活率存在关联。本研究基于实测数据，构建了绿背山雀种群动态的随机模拟模型。本研究对比了模拟时间序列与实测种群……