<p>Panel quantile regression results.</p>

The relationship between private consumption expenditure and public expenditure represents a recurring theme in macroeconomics, with relevance to both empirical and theoretical discourse. However, there is a lack of consensus on its direction. Accordingly, this study aims to examine whether public expenditure rules out private consumption expenditure for European Union during the period of 1995–2022. The findings indicate that public expenditure has a positive effect on private consumption expenditure over the long term, thereby corroborating Keynesian theory. However, except the defense expenditure, the findings demonstrate the complementary effect of public expenditures on private consumption expenditures. Moreover, disposable income has a positive influence in all model specifications, which corroborates the Keynesian Absolute Income Hypothesis. Considering the findings, this study also suggests some policy recommendations for the future.

私人消费支出与公共支出的关系是宏观经济学中经久不衰的研究主题，兼具经验实证与理论探讨的双重意义。但学界对二者的作用方向尚未达成共识。据此，本研究旨在考察1995-2022年间欧盟范围内公共支出是否会挤出私人消费支出。研究结果显示，长期来看公共支出对私人消费支出具有正向影响，这一结论印证了凯恩斯主义理论。不过，除国防支出外，研究结果表明公共支出对私人消费支出存在互补效应。此外，可支配收入在所有模型设定中均表现出正向影响，这一结果印证了凯恩斯绝对收入假说。基于上述研究结论，本研究同时为后续政策制定提供了若干建议。