Classification of land use index.

Studying land use changes caused by human economic activities is beneficial for sustainable growth, making it a global research hotspot. In this study, we used Landsat Thematic Mapper images and statistical yearbooks from 1986, 1995, 2000, 2007, 2010, and 2020 to obtain grid data on the land use status of the Three Gorges Reservoir Region (TGRR), from which vector data reflecting socioeconomic information were derived. We introduced models on land use quantitative changes, dynamic indicators, and degree index to investigate spatiotemporal variations in land use in the TGRR over the past 30 years. Classified maps were generated using ARCGIS 10.8, and Landsat TM images were processed for accuracy using supervised classification techniques. Based on the region’s status quo and the analytic hierarchy process, we constructed a land resource carrying ability evaluation indicator model considering social, economic, population, and ecological carrying abilities, introducing a mean-square mistake decision-making approach to determine indicator weights. Our results indicate significant changes in land types within the TGRR from 1986 to 2020, with decreases in arable land, forest land, and grassland, while water bodies, building land, and unused land increased. The change rates varied significantly among different land types, reflecting rapid development, especially between 1995 and 2000. Additionally, our analysis delves into the underlying mechanisms driving these changes, providing insights into how different factors influence spatial-temporal evolution of land use and land carrying capacity, crucial for developing optimization strategies aimed at promoting sustainable growth and efficient use of land resources in the TGRR. This study offers a comprehensive analysis of the TGRR’s land resource carrying ability, serving as a reference for sustainable land use.

探究人类经济活动引发的土地利用变化对可持续发展具有重要意义，该主题亦成为全球研究热点。本研究采用1986、1995、2000、2007、2010及2020年的陆地卫星专题制图仪（Landsat Thematic Mapper）影像与统计年鉴，获取三峡库区（Three Gorges Reservoir Region, TGRR）的土地利用现状格点数据，并由此提取反映社会经济信息的矢量数据。本研究引入土地利用数量变化、土地利用动态度及土地利用程度指数模型，探究近30年来三峡库区土地利用的时空分异特征。研究采用ArcGIS 10.8生成土地利用分类图，并通过监督分类技术对陆地卫星专题制图仪影像进行精度处理。本研究基于库区现状与层次分析法（Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP），构建涵盖社会、经济、人口与生态承载能力的土地资源承载能力评价指标体系，并引入均方误差决策法确定指标权重。研究结果显示，1986至2020年间三峡库区土地类型发生显著变化：耕地、林地与草地面积呈缩减趋势，而水域、建设用地及未利用地面积则有所增加。不同土地类型的变化速率差异显著，反映出库区发展速度较快，尤以1995至2000年间最为突出。此外，本研究还深入剖析了驱动土地利用变化的内在机制，阐明了不同因素对土地利用时空演变及土地承载能力的影响路径，这对制定优化策略以推动三峡库区可持续发展与土地资源高效利用具有重要参考价值。本研究对三峡库区土地资源承载能力开展了系统性分析，可为库区土地可持续利用提供参考依据。