Table 3_Seasonal characteristics and trend analysis of vector mosquitoes in Shandong province from 2018 to 2024.xlsx

IntroductionMosquitoes are major vectors of various human pathogenic viruses, posing a significant and evolving public health threat. This is particularly true for China’s Shandong Province, which documented its northernmost local dengue fever outbreak in 2017, highlighting its vulnerability to sustained mosquito-borne disease transmission. In the context of the lack of universal vaccines, enhancing surveillance to inform precision control is critical. This study aims to characterize the population dynamics, seasonal patterns, and long-term trends of vector mosquitoes in Shandong Province from 2018 to 2024, thereby generating actionable evidence for targeted prevention strategies.
MethodsMosquito surveillance data collected across Shandong Province from 2018 to 2024 were systematically analyzed. The composition of mosquito vector assemblages was quantified and applied an integrated analytical framework: Degree of seasonal aggregation of mosquito populations were quantified using the concentration method, and peak timing, along with peak activity periods, was determined through circular statistical analysis. And the Joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate long-term trends in abundance and identify significant changes over the study period.
ResultsDuring the entire research period, Culex pipiens pallens was the predominant species in the monitoring work conducted in Shandong Province. From 2018 to 2024, the overall concentration degree of mosquito density in Shandong Province was M = 0.737, with γ = 0.722 (p < 0.05). The population peak occurred on July 30, and the peak activity period extended from June 13 to September 15. Significant regional variation was observed. The peak day occurred earliest in Linyi City, while Weihai recorded the latest peak day. From a long-term perspective, the province’s mosquito density exhibited a non-significant downward trend. Significant divergence in trends was observed between cities: Jinan, Yantai and Liaocheng exhibited marked decreases, whereas Weihai, Rizhao and Linyi showed significant increases.
ConclusionsVector mosquito populations in Shandong Province show distinct seasonal, with peak activity concentrated from mid-June to mid-September. Culex pipiens pallens was the dominant species. And regarding long-term trends, variations exist in mosquito density across cities within Shandong. These findings highlight the need for region-specific control measures and sustained surveillance to support precise prevention of mosquito-borne diseases.

引言
蚊虫是多种人类致病性病毒的主要传播媒介，构成了日益严峻且持续演变的公共卫生威胁。这一点在中国山东省尤为突出：该省在2017年发生了我国境内最北端的本土登革热暴发疫情，凸显出其对持续发生的虫媒传染病传播的易感性。鉴于目前尚无通用的预防性疫苗，加强监测以支撑精准防控至关重要。本研究旨在解析2018—2024年山东省媒介蚊虫（vector mosquitoes）的种群动态、季节规律与长期趋势，为制定针对性防控策略提供可落地的科学依据。
方法
本研究对2018—2024年山东省全域采集的蚊虫监测数据进行系统分析。对媒介蚊虫群落组成进行定量分析，并采用整合分析框架：采用集中度法量化蚊虫种群的季节聚集程度，通过圆形统计分析确定种群活动高峰时间及高峰活动周期；同时采用分段回归（Joinpoint regression）模型评估蚊虫密度的长期趋势，并识别研究周期内的显著变化节点。
结果
整个研究周期内，淡色库蚊（Culex pipiens pallens）是山东省蚊虫监测中的优势种群。2018—2024年，山东省蚊虫密度的整体聚集度为M=0.737，γ=0.722（p<0.05）。种群活动高峰出现在7月30日，整体高峰活动周期为6月13日至9月15日。研究观察到显著的区域差异：临沂市的活动高峰出现时间最早，威海市则最晚。从长期趋势来看，全省蚊虫密度整体呈不显著的下降趋势，但各地市的趋势存在显著分化：济南、烟台、聊城的蚊虫密度呈显著下降趋势，而威海、日照、临沂则呈显著上升趋势。
结论
山东省媒介蚊虫种群具有显著的季节节律，活动高峰集中于6月中旬至9月中旬，淡色库蚊为当地优势媒介种群。就长期趋势而言，山东省各地市的蚊虫密度变化趋势存在显著差异。本研究结果凸显了制定区域差异化防控措施并维持持续监测的必要性，以助力虫媒传染病的精准防控。