Numeracy Predicts Susceptibility to Base Rate Neglect, Probability Matching, and Ratio Bias

Higher numeracy is associated with better comprehension and use of numeric information as well as reduced susceptibility to some decision biases. We extended this line of work by showing that increased numeracy predicted probability maximizing (versus matching). At the same time, the more numerate were less susceptible to the ratio bias and base rate neglect measured by non-causal base rate scenarios. Decision time predicted accuracy for the ratio bias and probability matching scenarios, but not the base rate scenarios. Interestingly, this relationship between decision time and accuracy was positive for the ratio bias problems, but negative for the probability matching scenario. Please contact author with questions about this manuscript or data set.

数理能力（numeracy）越高，个体对数值信息的理解与运用能力越强，且对部分决策偏差的易感性越低。本研究拓展了该研究脉络，证实数理能力提升可预测个体更倾向于选择概率最大化策略（probability maximizing）而非匹配策略（matching）。与此同时，在非因果性基础概率情境下测量的比率偏差（ratio bias）与基础概率忽略（base rate neglect）任务中，数理能力更强的个体表现出更低的易感性。决策时长可预测个体在比率偏差任务与匹配策略任务情境中的作答准确率，但无法预测基础概率忽略任务的准确率。值得注意的是，决策时长与准确率之间的关联在比率偏差任务中呈正向，而在匹配策略任务情境中则呈负向。若对本手稿或数据集存有疑问，请联系本文作者。