Differential statistics IRB–CRB.

The banking industry necessitates implementing an early warning system to effectively identify the factors that impact bank managers and enable them to make informed decisions, thereby mitigating systemic risk. Identifying factors that influence banks in times of stability and crisis is crucial, as it ultimately contributes to developing an improved early warning system. This study undertakes a comparative analysis of the stability of Indonesian Islamic and conventional banking across distinct economic regimes—crisis and stability. We analyze monthly banking data from December 2007 to November 2022 using the Markov Switching Dynamic Regression technique. The study focuses on conducting a comparative analysis between Islamic banks, represented by Islamic Commercial Bank (ICB) and Islamic Rural Bank (IRB), and conventional banks, represented by the Conventional Commercial Bank (CCB) and Conventional Rural Bank (CRB). The findings reveal that both Islamic and conventional banks exhibit a higher probability of being in a stable regime than a crisis regime. Notably, Islamic banks demonstrate a greater propensity to remain in a stable regime than their conventional counterparts. However, in a crisis regime, the likelihood of recovery for Sharia-compliant institutions is lower than for conventional banks. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that larger banks exhibit higher stability than their smaller counterparts regarding assets and size. This study pioneers a comprehensive comparison of the Z-score, employed as a proxy for stability, between two distinct classifications of Indonesian banks: Sharia (ICB and IRB) and conventional (CCB and CRB). The result is expected to improve our awareness of the elements that affect the stability of Islamic and conventional banking in Indonesia, leading to a deeper comprehension of their dynamics.银行业亟需构建早期预警系统，以有效识别影响银行管理者决策的各类因素，辅助其制定科学决策，进而缓解系统性风险。识别稳定与危机时期影响银行运营的关键因素至关重要，这最终有助于优化早期预警系统的开发。本研究针对不同经济周期——危机与稳定时期——下印度尼西亚伊斯兰银行与传统银行的稳定性开展对比分析。研究采用马尔可夫转换动态回归（Markov Switching Dynamic Regression）方法，对2007年12月至2022年11月的月度银行数据进行分析。本研究聚焦于两类银行的对比：以伊斯兰商业银行（Islamic Commercial Bank, ICB）和伊斯兰乡村银行（Islamic Rural Bank, IRB）为代表的伊斯兰银行，以及以传统商业银行（Conventional Commercial Bank, CCB）和传统乡村银行（Conventional Rural Bank, CRB）为代表的传统银行。研究结果显示，伊斯兰银行与传统银行均更大概率处于稳定区间而非危机区间。值得注意的是，伊斯兰银行维持稳定区间的倾向显著高于传统银行。但在危机区间内，伊斯兰合规机构的复苏概率低于传统银行。此外，分析表明，以资产与规模衡量的大型银行稳定性优于小型银行。本研究首次全面对比了以Z值（Z-score）作为稳定性代理指标的两类印度尼西亚银行：伊斯兰银行（ICB与IRB）与传统银行（CCB与CRB）。本研究结果有望提升我们对印度尼西亚伊斯兰与传统银行稳定性影响因素的认知，进而深化对二者运行动态的理解。