Granger causality of the socioeconomic development indicator on fiscal management of Brazilian municipalities

Abstract The relationship between fiscal management and development has been the subject of many applied studies, but there are still incipient studies investigating the causal relationship between them. Based on the hypothesis that efficiency in fiscal management would result in better municipal socioeconomic indicators, the objective of this work was to investigate the relationship between fiscal management and development in 4,317 Brazilian municipalities in the period from 2006 to 2013 The regression model was used with panel data and Granger’s causality application. The results indicated that there is no causal relationship between fiscal management and development, It was also verified the causal relationship of development to fiscal management, demonstrating that efficient fiscal management does not always signal the efficient use of public resources to promote development.

摘要：财政管理与地区发展的关联长期以来都是诸多应用研究的核心议题，但针对二者因果关系的系统性探究仍处于起步阶段。本研究基于"财政管理效率可提升市政社会经济指标"这一假设，旨在考察2006至2013年巴西4317个市政辖区内财政管理与地区发展的关系。研究采用面板数据（panel data）回归模型，并应用格兰杰因果检验（Granger Causality）方法展开分析。结果表明，财政管理与发展之间并不存在显著因果关系；同时验证了发展对财政管理的因果传导效应，这一发现显示，高效的财政管理并不必然等同于公共资源得到高效利用以推动地区发展。