Understanding Booms and Busts in Housing Markets

Some booms in housing prices are followed by busts. Others are not. It is generally difficult to find observable fundamentals that are useful for predicting whether a boom will turn into a bust or not. We develop a model consistent with these observations. Agents have heterogeneous expectations部分房价暴涨之后会紧随暴跌，另一部分则不会。通常而言，难以找到有效的可观测基本面因素来预测某一轮房价暴涨是否会演变为暴跌。我们构建了一个与上述观测结果相符的模型。经济主体具备异质性预期。