30 meter Esri binary grids of coastal response type probabilities with respect to projected sea levels for the Northeastern U.S. from Maine to Virginia for the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s and 2080s (Albers, NAD 83)

The U.S. Geological Survey has been forecasting sea-level rise impacts on the landscape to evaluate where coastal land will be available for future use. The purpose of this project is to develop a spatially explicit, probabilistic model of coastal response for the Northeastern U.S. to a variety of sea-level scenarios that take into account the variable nature of the coast and provides outputs at spatial and temporal scales suitable for decision support. Model results provide predictions of adjusted land elevation ranges (AE) with respect to forecast sea-levels, a likelihood estimate of this outcome (PAE), and a probability of coastal response (CR) characterized as either static or dynamic. The predictions span the coastal zone vertically from -12 meters (m) to 10 m above mean high water (MHW). Results are produced at a horizontal resolution of 30 meters for four decades (the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s and 2080s). Adjusted elevations and their respective probabilities are generated using regional geospatial datasets of current sea-level forecasts, vertical land movement rates, and current elevation data. Coastal response type predictions incorporate adjusted elevation predictions with land cover data and expert knowledge to determine the likelihood that an area will be able to accommodate or adapt to water level increases and maintain its initial land class state or transition to a new non-submerged state (dynamic) or become submerged (static). Intended users of these data include scientific researchers, coastal planners, and natural resource management communities.

美国地质调查局（U.S. Geological Survey）长期致力于预测海平面上升对沿海景观的影响，以评估未来可供开发利用的沿海土地分布。本项目旨在为美国东北部沿海构建空间显式概率模型，以适配多种海平面变化情景：该模型充分考量海岸的动态异质性，且输出的空间与时间尺度可有效支撑决策制定。模型结果涵盖三类核心输出：针对预测海平面的调整后土地高程范围（Adjusted Elevation, AE）预测值、该结果的似然估计（Probability of Adjusted Elevation, PAE），以及以静态或动态为特征的海岸响应概率（Coastal Response, CR）。本次预测覆盖的沿海区域垂直跨度为平均高潮位（Mean High Water, MHW）以下12米至以上10米。数据集的水平分辨率为30米，时间跨度涵盖四个十年时段：2020年代、2030年代、2050年代及2080年代。调整后高程及其对应概率，基于当前海平面预测、垂直陆地运动速率与现有高程数据的区域地理空间数据集生成。海岸响应类型预测则结合调整后高程预测、土地覆被数据与专家知识，用于判定某一区域能否容纳或适应水位上升，并维持初始土地类别状态，或是转变为新的非淹没状态（动态响应），抑或是最终被淹没（静态响应）。本数据集的目标用户包括科研人员、沿海规划者与自然资源管理群体。