The Middle-Income Trap: Navigating the Ambiguity of the Concept. Data and Code

This study examines the middle-income trap hypothesis, a concept widely debated in economic literature. It aims to systematize various definitions of the concept and assess how definitional differences influence conclusions about development paths and income group transitions. Econometric analysis reveals that these differences have minimal impact on transition probabilities, making discussions on the trap's formation factors largely definition-independent. Sharp economic slowdowns linked to the trap arise from factors distinct from those driving upward income transitions but may signal a long-term decline in the likelihood of such transitions. The definitional diversity complicates applying the hypothesis to specific countries.

本研究聚焦经济学文献中广受热议的中等收入陷阱假说（middle-income trap hypothesis），旨在系统梳理该概念的各类定义，并评估定义差异如何影响关于发展路径与收入群体跃迁的研究结论。计量经济学分析结果表明，此类定义差异对跃迁概率的影响微乎其微，使得围绕该陷阱形成动因的讨论在很大程度上与定义无关。与该陷阱相关的剧烈经济增速放缓，其驱动因素与推动收入向上跃迁的因素截然不同，但这类放缓或预示着此类收入跃迁的长期可能性出现下降。定义的多样性使得将该假说应用于具体国家的实践变得更为复杂。