Statistical analysis of winter ozone exceedances in the Uintah Basin, Utah, USA

Because of the confluence of several factors (persistent multiday inversions, petroleum production, and snow cover), the Uintah Basin of eastern Utah, USA, exhibits high concentrations of winter ozone. A regression analysis is presented that successfully predicts daily ozone concentration with a standard error of about 11 ppb. It also predicts with 90% accuracy whether any given day will exceed the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for ozone, 70 ppb. An analysis is introduced for calculating a “pseudo-lapse rate,” a determination of inversion intensity in the absence of sounding data. By combining the model with historical meteorological data, it is possible to make long-range predictions about ozone formation. The odds of observing no exceedance days in any given season are 38%. The odds of only three or fewer exceedance days in any given season are 46%. Implications: This paper provides an improved understanding of the scientific underpinnings of the winter ozone phenomenon and an ability to make long-range predictions.受持续多日逆温、石油开采与积雪覆盖等多重因素共同影响，美国犹他州东部的尤因塔盆地（Uintah Basin）冬季臭氧浓度居高不下。本研究提出一种回归分析方法，可成功预测逐日臭氧浓度，其标准误差约为11 ppb；该方法还能以90%的准确率，预测任意单日臭氧浓度是否会超过70 ppb的美国国家环境空气质量标准（National Ambient Air Quality Standard）。此外，本文还提出了一种用于计算“伪递减率（pseudo-lapse rate）”的分析方法，可在缺乏探空数据的情况下确定逆温强度。将该模型与历史气象数据相结合，即可对臭氧生成情况开展长期预测。任一季节内未出现超标日的概率为38%，该季节内超标日不超过3天的概率为46%。研究启示：本文深化了对冬季臭氧现象科学基础的认知，并具备了臭氧生成的长期预测能力。