THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OPTIMISM AND MERGER AND ACQUISITION WAVES: EVIDENCE FROM THE BRAZILIAN MARKET

ABSTRACT The reason why mergers and acquisitions occur in waves is still a subject rarely explored in the financial literature, especially in a context of markets outside the USA and UK. Therefore, the present study investigates whether the optimism of the agents could led to a wave of M&A, using Brazilian data from 2007 to 2017 of transactions and the Business Confidence Index, wich measures the optimism of the entrepreneurs about the current and future economy scenario. We used Harford (2005)’s definition for a M&A wave. Using a Logit binary response model, the study pointed out that optimism increases the probability of M&A wave. Ibovespa was the variable that had the greater effect on the probabilities of a M&A wave. The results were significant for different lags.

摘要 并购浪潮的成因在金融学界仍鲜有探讨，尤其针对英美以外的市场环境而言。据此，本研究以巴西2007年至2017年的并购（Mergers and Acquisitions, M&A）交易数据与企业信心指数（Business Confidence Index）为样本，探究代理人乐观情绪是否会引发并购浪潮；该指数用于衡量企业家对当前及未来经济形势的乐观程度。本研究采用哈福德（Harford, 2005）对并购浪潮的定义，通过二元Logit响应模型开展实证分析，结果显示乐观情绪会提升并购浪潮的发生概率。伊博维斯帕指数（Ibovespa）是对并购浪潮发生概率影响最为显著的变量，且该研究结果在不同滞后阶数下均具有统计学显著性。