Correlation test of variables.

Surplus distribution is at the core of cooperative systems. This study examines the impact of the surplus distribution principle on the development of agricultural cooperatives. We utilize panel data on cooperative development and surplus distribution for 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2021 to identify the development pattern and surplus distribution status of cooperatives. A two-way fixed effects model is used as a benchmark to examine the impact of the surplus distribution principle on the development of cooperatives. The empirical analysis shows that the surplus distribution method, which strictly adheres to a trading return of more than 60% of the distributable surplus, has a significant negative impact on cooperative membership size but a significant positive impact on cooperative income. These results remain robust after controlling for the estimation method, replacing the core explanatory variables, shrinking the tails, and conducting endogeneity tests. This study contributes to a macro-level understanding of the impact of the surplus distribution principle on the performance and scale of cooperatives and provides important policy insights for promoting surplus distribution standardization in farmers’ cooperatives and guiding members to establish a stable benefit-linkage mechanism within cooperatives.

盈余分配是合作社制度的核心所在。本研究聚焦盈余分配原则对农业合作社发展的影响，采用2008-2021年中国30个省份的合作社发展与盈余分配面板数据，刻画合作社的发展态势与盈余分配现状。研究以双向固定效应模型作为基准回归方法，检验盈余分配原则对合作社发展的作用效应。实证分析结果表明，严格按照可分配盈余60%以上比例进行交易额返还的盈余分配方式，对合作社社员规模存在显著负向影响，但对合作社经营收入具有显著正向作用。在更换估计方法、替换核心解释变量、开展缩尾处理以及内生性检验后，上述研究结论依然保持稳健。本研究有助于从宏观层面厘清盈余分配原则对合作社经营绩效与发展规模的影响机制，同时为推进农民合作社盈余分配规范化建设、引导社员在合作社内部构建稳定的利益联结机制提供了重要的政策启示。