Replication Data for: The New White Flight?: The Effects of Political Appeals to Latinos on White Democrats

One explanation for the post-1965 shift in the vote choice of White Americans posits that it was driven by a shift in the racial imagery of the two major parties. The growing role of Latinos in the Democratic Party has brought new changes in the racial groups associated with the parties. In this paper, I explore whether the increasing attention to Latinos in Democratic Party politics is having an effect similar to that which followed African-Americans political repositioning fifty years ago, and decreasing support for the Party among White Democrats. Drawing on three survey experiments, from two elections, I demonstrate that as White Democrats learn about Democratic outreach to Latinos, they become less supportive of Democratic candidates. This pattern, I find, is driven by the effects that such information has on the racial prototypes associated with each party. All together, these findings point to a new phase of racial realignment in the American political system.

针对1965年后美国白人选民投票选择的转变，现有学术解释提出，这一转向源于美国两大政党的种族形象（racial imagery）的变迁。拉丁裔群体在美国民主党中的影响力日益提升，使得两党所关联的种族群体结构出现了新变化。本文旨在探讨：民主党政坛中对拉丁裔群体关注度的持续提升，是否会产生与五十年前非裔美国人政治立场调整类似的效应——即引发白人民主党选民对本党支持率的下滑。本文依托两次选举中的三项调查实验展开研究，结果显示：当白人民主党选民获悉民主党针对拉丁裔群体的选民拓展（outreach）行动时，其对民主党候选人的支持率会显著降低。研究发现，这一现象的驱动机制在于：此类信息会影响民众对两党所关联的种族原型（racial prototypes）的认知。综合来看，上述研究结果表明，美国政治体系正处于种族政治重组（racial realignment）的新阶段。