Replication Data for: The Electoral Consequences of Household Indebtedness Under Austerity

What are the political consequences of rising household debt in the context of fiscal austerity? I argue that cuts in welfare benefits privatize social obligations as voters address ensuing financial shortfalls by borrowing money. Debt re-commodifies individuals and shifts their electoral support from incumbents to opposition and anti-establishment parties by provoking feelings of political neglect, economic vulnerability, and strong emotional responses. I examine this argument by leveraging spatial and temporal variation in the rollout of Universal Credit, a large-scale welfare reform in the United Kingdom. Using fine-grained administrative data on unsecured debt, I demonstrate that fiscal austerity generated an increase in indebtedness, which lower support for the incumbent Conservatives and strengthened support for Labour and UKIP. I then use individual-level survey data to explore the mechanisms that link debt and political behavior. The results suggest that rising indebtedness increases the political costs of welfare retrenchment and creates new political cleavages.

本文探讨财政紧缩语境下家庭债务规模攀升所引发的政治后果。笔者提出，当选民通过举债应对由此产生的财政收支缺口时，福利削减实则将社会责任私有化。债务令个体重新被商品化，并通过催生政治疏离感、经济脆弱感与强烈情绪反应，促使选民将选举支持从执政党转向反对党及反建制政党。

笔者依托英国大规模福利改革——通用信贷（Universal Credit）推行过程中的时空差异展开论证。通过使用无担保债务的精细化行政数据集，本文证实财政紧缩推高了债务规模，这使得选民对执政保守党（Conservatives）的支持率下降，同时提升了工党（Labour）与英国独立党（UKIP）的支持率。随后，本文利用个体层面的调查数据，探究联结债务与政治行为的作用机制。研究结果表明，家庭债务规模攀升加剧了福利缩减的政治成本，并催生了新的政治裂痕。