Upward elevation and northwest range shifts for alpine Meconopsis species in the Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains region

Climate change may impact the distribution of species by shifting their ranges to higher elevations or higher latitudes. The impacts on alpine plant species may be particularly profound due to a potential lack of availability of future suitable habitat. To identify how alpine species have responded to climate change during the past century as well as to predict how they may react to possible global climate change scenarios in the future, we investigate the climatic responses of seven species of Meconopsis, a representative genus endemic in the alpine meadow and subnival region of the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountains. We analyzed past elevational shifts, as well as projected shifts in longitude, latitude, elevation, and range size using historical specimen records and species distribution modeling under optimistic (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) scenarios across three general circulation models for 2070. Our results indicate that across all seven species, there has been an upward shift in...

气候变化可通过促使物种分布范围向高海拔或高纬度区域迁移，进而影响物种的分布格局。由于高山植物（alpine plant）未来适宜栖息地可能存在匮乏风险，气候变化对其影响可能尤为显著。为探明过去一个世纪内高山物种对气候变化的响应规律，并预测其未来对全球气候变化情景的潜在反应，本研究以喜马拉雅-横断山区高山草甸与亚雪带特有代表属——绿绒蒿属（Meconopsis）的7个物种为研究对象，分析其气候响应特征。本研究利用历史标本记录与物种分布模型（species distribution modeling），基于3种大气环流模式（general circulation models），在乐观（RCP 4.5）与悲观（RCP 8.5）两种情景下，分析了7个物种过去的海拔迁移趋势，以及2070年时的经度、纬度、海拔与分布区面积的预测变化。研究结果显示，全部7个物种的分布范围均呈现向高海拔迁移的趋势……