Regional heterogeneity.

In the context of building a modern industrial system, digital finance inclusive (DFI) and environmental regulation (ER) have become significant drivers of industrial structure upgrading. Amid the rapid development of DFI and the tightening of ER, high-quality development goals have been set. From a spatial perspective, can DFI, ER, and their interactions positively impact China’s industrial structure? Based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020, empirical analysis is conducted using the Spatial Durbin Model and the Threshold Model. The study find that, firstly, in spatial regression, both DFI and ER significantly promote the upgrading of industrial structures, with notable spatial spillover effects. Secondly, it was discovered that the interaction between DFI and ER have a significant negative impact on industrial structure upgrading, with a pronounced negative spatial spillover effect, indicating a "siphon effect," which is a new finding. In the threshold model regression, it is found that both DFI and ER exhibit a single-threshold effect, while their interaction shows a double-threshold effect. In the heterogeneity test, it is found that the interaction between DFI and ER on industrial structure upgrading is greatly influenced by regional factors, with significant differences across different regions. Therefore, it is crucial to pay attention to the threshold values in the threshold effect while considering the unique economic and geographical attributes of each region to formulate targeted strategies.在构建现代产业体系的背景下，数字普惠金融（Digital Finance Inclusive, DFI）与环境规制（Environmental Regulation, ER）已成为推动产业结构升级的核心动力。伴随数字普惠金融的快速发展与环境规制的持续收紧，我国已确立高质量发展目标。从空间维度而言，数字普惠金融、环境规制及其交互作用能否对中国产业结构升级产生正向推动？本研究基于2011-2020年中国30个省份的面板数据，运用空间杜宾模型（Spatial Durbin Model）与门槛模型（Threshold Model）开展实证分析。研究结果显示：其一，空间回归分析表明，数字普惠金融与环境规制均能显著促进产业结构升级，且存在显著的空间溢出效应。其二，数字普惠金融与环境规制的交互作用对产业结构升级具有显著负向影响，并呈现出显著的负向空间溢出效应，即存在"siphon effect"（虹吸效应），这为本研究的全新发现。在门槛模型回归中，数字普惠金融与环境规制均呈现单一门槛效应，而二者的交互作用则呈现双重门槛效应。异质性检验结果显示，数字普惠金融与环境规制的交互作用对产业结构升级的影响受区域因素的显著制约，不同区域间存在显著差异。因此，在制定针对性策略时，需兼顾各区域独特的经济与地理属性，同时重点关注门槛效应中的阈值水平，这一点至关重要。