Table 5_Suitability mapping of native tree species in dry-hot valleys of Yunnan based on InVEST-MaxEnt coupled modeling: model validation framework with native tree species actual distribution and seed germination.xlsx

IntroductionThe target valleys along the Jinsha, Nujiang, Lancang, and Yuanjiang Rivers exhibit acute human-land conflicts and ecosystem vulnerability. Predicting the distribution of potential suitable habitats for native tree species in Yunnan Province provides basin-scale insights for the management of ecosystems in dry and hot valleys, thereby advancing restoration planning in dry-hot valleys.
MethodsThis study investigates native tree species suitability in Yunnan’s dry-hot valleys using an integrated MaxEnt-InVEST modeling framework.
ResultsTemperature and precipitation emerged as dominant bioclimatic controls, with optimal species occurrence (1 000–2 500 m) showing negative elevation correlation. Four native tree species (Osteomeles schwerinae, Phyllanthus emblica, Quercus francetii and Sapindus delavayi) displayed fragmented suitable areas along mountainous riparian zones, while habitat quality hotspots mainly covered non-urbanized regions, avoiding central urban clusters and northeastern/southeastern karst zones. The coupled model demonstrated significantly improved accuracy compared to the standalone MaxEnt by incorporating land-use impacts, with Yuanmou County case analysis confirming the enhanced predictive capability through actual distribution patterns. Spatial prioritization identified core planting clusters in central/southeastern valleys, though fragmented by agricultural encroachment.
DiscussionThis methodology provides a cost-effective solution for vegetation restoration planning in ecologically fragile dry-hot ecosystems. The research results can provide scientific support for the restoration of degraded ecosystems in dry-hot valleys of Yunnan Province, the national Afforestation program and soil and water conservation projects.

引言 金沙江、怒江、澜沧江与元江沿岸的目标河谷面临尖锐的人地矛盾与生态系统脆弱性问题。针对云南省本土树种潜在适宜生境分布开展预测，可为干热河谷的流域尺度生态系统管理提供科学支撑，进而推进干热河谷的生态修复规划工作。
方法 本研究采用集成MaxEnt与InVEST的建模框架，对云南省干热河谷的本土树种适宜性进行探究。
结果 温度与降水为主导的生物气候调控因子，物种适宜发生的海拔区间为1000~2500米，且与海拔呈负相关关系。四种本土树种（Osteomeles schwerinae、Phyllanthus emblica、Quercus francetii及Sapindus delavayi）的适宜生境呈碎片化分布于山地河岸带；生境质量热点区域主要覆盖非城市化区域，避开了城市核心集群区以及东北、东南喀斯特地带。相较于单一MaxEnt模型，该耦合模型通过纳入土地利用影响因素，预测精度得到显著提升；元谋县的案例分析通过实际分布格局验证了该模型增强的预测能力。空间优先级分析识别出河谷中部与东南部的核心种植集群区域，但该区域受农业侵占影响呈碎片化分布。
讨论 本研究方法为生态脆弱的干热生态系统的植被修复规划提供了一种经济高效的解决方案。本研究结果可为云南省干热河谷退化生态系统修复、国家造林计划以及水土保持工程提供科学依据。