GAME THEORY AND 2x2 STRATEGIC GAMES APPLIED FOR MODELING OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY DECISION-MAKING PROBLEMS

ABSTRACT Oil and gas resources have been considered valuable assets, associated with potential conflicts due to distinct interests of many agents involved in their exploration, such as producing and consuming countries, governments and companies. These conflicts can show up under many situations and market conditions, such as partnerships, joint development, optimal outputs and reserve maximization. Game theory is known as a methodology that improves the decision-making processes by better understanding the players’ specific motivations, strategic interactions and payoff estimation. A widely used framework for modeling social and economic phenomena is the 2 x 2 strategic games, of which include classical forms such as Prisoner’s Dilemma, Stag Hunt, and Battle of Sexes. Therefore, this paper proposes to examine relevant realistic and real-world cases of the oil and gas industry in the form of 2 x 2 strategic games, aiming to investigate game theory approaches to aid in the discussion and resolution of the main dilemmas faced.

摘要 油气资源向来被视作宝贵资产，由于参与勘探开发的各类主体（包括产油国、消费国、政府与企业）利益诉求各异，其相关活动往往伴随潜在冲突。这类冲突可在多种场景与市场环境中显现，例如合作联营、联合开发、最优产量设定以及储量最大化目标等情形。博弈论（Game Theory）作为一种方法论，可通过明晰参与主体的具体动机、策略互动与收益估算，优化决策流程。用于模拟社会与经济现象的主流框架之一便是2×2战略博弈，其经典范式包括囚徒困境（Prisoner’s Dilemma）、猎鹿博弈（Stag Hunt）与性别战（Battle of Sexes）。据此，本文拟以2×2战略博弈为载体，剖析油气产业中贴合现实的典型案例，旨在探究博弈论方法，以助力相关核心困境的研讨与解决。