Temperature impacts on dengue incidence are nonlinear and mediated by climatic and socioeconomic factors

Temperature can influence mosquito-borne diseases like dengue. These
effects are expected to vary geographically and over time in both
magnitude and direction and may interact with other environmental
variables, making it difficult to anticipate changes in response to
climate change. Here, we investigate global variation in
temperature–dengue relationship by analyzing published correlations
between temperature and dengue and matching them with remotely sensed
climatic and socioeconomic data. We found that the correlation between
temperature and dengue was most positive at intermediate (near 24°C)
temperatures, as predicted from an independent mechanistic model. Positive
temperature–dengue associations were strongest when temperature variation
and population density were high and decreased with infection burden and
rainfall mean and variation, suggesting alternative limiting factors on
transmission. Our results show that while climate effects on diseases are
context-dependent they are also predictable from the thermal biology of
transmission and its environmental and social mediators.

温度可影响登革热等蚊媒传染病。这类影响的强度与方向会随地理区域与时间推移发生变化，且可能与其他环境变量产生交互作用，这使得人们难以预判气候变化背景下的疾病传播变化趋势。
本研究通过整合已发表的温度与登革热关联数据，并将其与遥感获取的气候及社会经济数据进行匹配，分析温度-登革热关联的全球差异。
研究发现，温度与登革热的关联在中等温度（约24℃）时呈最强正向相关，这与独立机理模型的预测结果一致。
当温度波动幅度与人口密度较高时，温度与登革热的正向关联最强；而随着感染负担、平均降雨量及降雨波动的增加，该关联会减弱，这表明登革热传播还存在其他限制因素。
本研究结果表明，尽管气候对疾病的影响存在情境依赖性，但仍可通过传播的热生物学特性及其环境与社会介导因素进行预测。