Ups and Downs of NATO-Russia Relations: a Cognitivist Perspective

This article explains the recursive tendency to develop inimical relations between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Russia by pointing at the incompatibility of their strategic cultures—here understood as broad cognitive frameworks subsuming an actor's self-perception, worldview, and preferred way to use force. NATO and Russia have defined their roles in world politics, decoded the other's intentions, and undertaken certain practices on the basis of divergent socio-cognitive assumptions. Incompatible strategic cultures bring about clashing grand strategies and generate conflictual relations. The two actors think differently and therefore read and react to a same situation in divergent ways. As a product of socially-embedded dynamics, NATO-Russia enmity cannot be easily overcome - if not in the long term and via sustained interaction. After presenting their theoretical framework, the authors reconstruct NATO's and Russia's strategic cultures, and then discuss the Ukraine crisis as a case study.

本文通过剖析北大西洋公约组织（北约，NATO）与俄罗斯之间战略文化（strategic culture）的不相容性，阐释了二者走向敌对关系的递归性倾向。本文将战略文化定义为涵盖行为体自我认知、世界观及偏好性武力使用方式的广义认知框架。北约与俄罗斯基于各自迥异的社会认知假设，分别界定了自身在世界政治中的角色，解读对方的战略意图，并开展了相关实践活动。不相容的战略文化会引发大战略（grand strategy）的碰撞，并催生双边敌对关系。二者的思维逻辑存在根本差异，因此对同一局势的解读与应对方式也截然不同。作为社会嵌入性动态进程的产物，北约与俄罗斯之间的敌对关系难以轻易消解；唯有通过长期持续的互动，并历经漫长周期，方能实现关系的和解。在阐述其理论框架后，作者们重构了北约与俄罗斯的战略文化，并以乌克兰危机作为案例展开讨论。