What role for sustainability in post-fossil regional transition processes? Exploring governance conditions, actors, and transition projects in a German coal phase-out region

While the coal phase-out is progressing in many countries, formerly fossil-dependent regions receive transition funding for substitute economic activities. This can steer these regions into a sustainable future, yet it is not clear from the outset whether governance conditions and actors’ preferences are conducive to a genuinely sustainable transition. The present study examines to what extent sustainability goals shape the transition process following the coal phase-out in a German coal region (Lusatia), and the guiding logics observed therein. Three key aspects for regional transition processes are considered: enabling conditions for sustainability governance (policy coherence, participation, reflexivity, intergenerational equity); key actors and their sustainability conceptions; and the role of sustainability in selecting and funding transition projects. Based on expert interviews, policy documents, project lists, and sustainability declarations, our findings indicate that sustainability is a rather low priority for key actors. In combination with ambivalent governance conditions, this manifests as a weak sustainability focus among most resulting projects. Nevertheless, our analysis also reveals several projects focusing on selective aspects of sustainability. The phase-out therefore appears to follow the logic of signaling, and it remains unclear whether this might revert to mere energy system substitution or else aspire to comprehensive regional transformation.

尽管多国正稳步推进煤炭淘汰进程，此前高度依赖化石能源的地区可获得转型资助，用于培育替代经济活动。此举或可推动这些地区迈向可持续发展未来，但从转型初始阶段便存在核心不确定性：当地的治理环境与行动主体的偏好，是否能够支撑真正意义上的可持续转型？本研究以德国煤炭产区卢萨蒂亚（Lusatia）为研究案例，探讨可持续发展目标对煤炭淘汰后区域转型进程的塑造程度，以及该区域内观测到的转型指导逻辑。研究聚焦区域转型进程的三大核心维度：一是可持续治理的赋能条件，具体包括政策连贯性、公众参与、反思性与代际公平；二是核心行动主体及其可持续发展理念；三是可持续性在转型项目遴选与资金拨付环节中所扮演的角色。基于专家访谈资料、政策文件、项目清单及可持续性声明的分析结果显示，核心行动主体对可持续性议题的重视程度普遍偏低。结合当地存在矛盾性的治理环境来看，这一现状使得多数最终落地的转型项目的可持续性导向偏弱。不过，本研究的分析同样发现了若干聚焦可持续性特定维度的转型项目。因此，本次煤炭淘汰进程似乎遵循信号传递的逻辑，目前仍无法确定其最终是仅止步于能源系统的简单替代，还是有望实现区域的全面转型发展。