Do Perceptions of Ballot Secrecy Influence Turnout? Results from a Field Experiment

Although the secret ballot has been secured as a legal matter in the United States, formal secrecy protections are not equivalent to convincing citizens that they may vote privately and without fear of reprisal. We present survey evidence that those who have not previously voted are particularly likely to voice doubts about the secrecy of the voting process. We then report results from a field experiment where we mailed information about protections of ballot secrecy to registered voters prior to the 2010 general election. Consistent with our survey data, we find that these letters increased turnout for registered citizens without records of previous turnout, but they did not appear to influence the behavior of citizens who had previously voted. The increase in turnout of more than three percentage points (20%) for those without previous records of voting is notably larger than the effect of a standard get‐out‐the‐vote mailing for this group. Overall, these results suggest that although the secret ballot is a long‐standing institution in the United States, beliefs about this institution may not match the legal reality.

尽管无记名投票（secret ballot）在美国已获得法律层面的保障，但正式的保密保护措施并不足以让民众确信自己能够私密投票且不必担心遭受报复。本研究通过调研数据证实，此前未参与过投票的选民更易对投票流程的保密性表示质疑。随后本研究报告了一项实地实验的结果：在2010年美国大选前，我们向已登记选民邮寄了关于选票保密保障措施的相关信息。与调研数据的结论一致，我们发现这类宣传信函提高了无既往投票记录的已登记选民的投票率，但并未对既往有投票记录的选民的投票行为产生明显影响。无既往投票记录的选民投票率提升超过3个百分点（增幅达20%），这一效果显著高于该群体通常所接触的标准动员投票信函的影响力度。综合来看，这些结果表明：尽管无记名投票是美国由来已久的制度，但民众对该项制度的认知或许与法律层面的实际情况并不相符。