Tracking the Source of the Decline in GDP Volatility: An Analysis of the Automobile Industry

Recent papers by Kim and Nelson (1999) and McConnell and Perez-Quiros (2000) uncover a dramatic decline in the volatility of U.S. GDP growth beginning in 1984. Determining whether the source is good luck, good policy or better inventory management has since developed into an active area of research.Kim与Nelson（1999）以及McConnell与Perez-Quiros（2000）的近期研究论文揭示，美国国内生产总值（GDP）增长率的波动性自1984年起出现显著下降。此后，探究该现象的成因究竟是利好因素、合理政策抑或是更优化的库存管理，已成为一个活跃的研究领域。