Harmonized Survey of Young People in Egypt, HSYPE 2009 V2

EGY_HSYPE_2009_V2 Harmonized Survey of Young People in Egypt, HSYPE 2009 V2 Young People in Egypt Survey The 2009 Survey of Young People in Egypt (SYPE) builds upon the ASCE survey from the previous decade, focusing on a larger age group: those aged 10 to 29. SYPE concentrates on the five key life transitions for youth: health, education, employment and livelihood, family formation, and civic participation. <p style="border:solid thin black;"> SYPE 2009 IS A HARMONIZED-PANEL DATA SET WITH SYPE 2014 </p> In every society, young people carry the promise of a better future. They are the building blocks of a country’s economy and society and its most essential human resource. In Egypt, young people are not only its most important capital but they also constitute the largest segment of the population. According to the 2006 census, approximately 40% of Egyptians are between the ages of 10 and 29. With the right investments, this youth bulge will represent a demographic opportunity that will positively shape the country’s future. Once Egypt’s young people reach working age, given a relatively low proportion of older and younger non-working populations to support, they will present a “demographic gift” of low economic dependency. However, the large size of this cohort places enormous pressures on social services and the labor market and creates a major challenge for development planning. Failures in these institutions could result in the social and economic marginalization of a large proportion of youth that will be unable to compete in an increasingly globalized economy, hence turning the “gift” to demographic “burden”. Effective planning relies on high-quality research. The Population Council seeks to build the evidence base for better policies and programs with the view of generating research that makes a difference. Young people have been a primary focus for the Council for decades, directing research to determine their conditions and contexts, and providing evidence for decision-makers. In 1998, the Population Council published Transitions to Adulthood, a comprehensive profile of youth based on the Council’s 1997 Adolescence and Social Change in Egypt (ASCE) survey. The results of ASCE have been an important resource for programming for adolescents in Egypt. Responding to the dearth of data on youth in Egypt, the Population Council conducted a comprehensive situation analysis of Egyptian adolescents and young people: the Survey of Young People in Egypt (SYPE), which covers a nationally representative sample of 15,029 young people aged 10-29. The SYPE collected data on the five key life transitions of education, work, family formation; health, and civic and political participation. SYPE follows up to an earlier survey conducted by the Population Council in 1997, The Adolescence and Social Change in Egypt (ASCE) survey. With focus on young people aged 10 to 19, analysis of ASCE identified tobacco use, female circumcision, anemia, growth stunting and delayed sexual maturation, poor management of menstruation, and underutilization of health insurance as six priority issues for youth in Egypt. SYPE updates the results provided by the earlier survey and expands their scope. The data collected for SYPE 2009 was harmonized, by the Economic Research Forum (ERF) Data Team, with SYPE 2014 to produce a comparable and harmonized version of the data set to facilitate cross-temporal research. Sample survey data [ssd] 1- Households. 2- Youth aged (10-29) years. Version 2: A version of SYPE 2009 data harmonized with SYPE 2014 data prepared by the ERF for dissemination. 2019-06 The topics covered by the survey included key life transitions for youth: 1- Health 2- Education 3- Employment and livelihood 4- International migration 5- Marriage and family formation 6- Social issues, values, and civic engagement 7- Time use 8- Attitudes toward gender roles The SYPE sample is nationally representative, covering all governorates in Egypt, including the five Frontier governorates. The SYPE sample is considered to be an innovative design, because it allows for a priori inclusion of slum areas within the urban sample. The survey covered a national sample of households and selected youth aged 10-29. <p style="border:solid thin black;"> SYPE 2009 IS A HARMONIZED-PANEL DATA SET WITH SYPE 2014 </p> ----> Sample Design The sample of the Survey of Young People in Egypt 2009 (SYPE) was designed in such a way as to be representative at the national as well as regional levels. The sample size of approximately 17,000 young people between the ages of 10 and 29 was selected to provide estimates of key indicators related to adolescents and youth for the country as a whole and for four administrative regions (Urban governorates, Lower Egypt governorates, Upper Egypt governorates and the Frontier governorates), and, where relevant, for the urban and rural segments of these regions. These indicators include never enrollment rates, dropout rates, the incidence of child labor, and unemployment rates. Based on previous statistics about the incidence of young people in the relevant age and sex groups, we determined that a nationally-representative sample of 11,000 households would be sufficient. To obtain accurate estimates for the Frontier governorates, these governorates had to be oversampled. As a result, the SYPE is not a self-weighted sample and weights are needed to obtain the correct estimates. ----> Sample Frame The SYPE sample was designed as a multi-stage stratified cluster sample. The primary sampling units (PSUs) were selected from a CAPMAS master sample. The master sample is a stratified cluster sample that contains 2,400 PSUs, divided into 1,080 urban and 1,320 rural PSUs. These PSUs are drawn from a frame of enumeration areas (EAs) covering the entire country prepared by CAPMAS from the 2006 Population Census. Each EA is drawn up in such a way as to contain roughly 1500 dwelling units. The sample is stratified into governorates and each governorate is further stratified into urban and rural segments, where relevant. The distribution of PSUs across strata in the master sample reflects the distribution of the population so as to produce a self-weighted sample. To achieve a fairly wide geographic dispersion in the SYPE sample and thus minimize the design effect, we set the number of households per cluster to 25. To obtain these 25 households, 25 dwelling units were systematically selected from the roughly 1500 listed in each EA. To get the sample size we needed, we set the number of required PSUs to 455, for a total sample size of 11,375 households. The distribution of PSUs across governorates and urban and rural areas in both the master sample and the SYPE sample are shown in (Table 1 in Appendix C of the final report available among the external resources). The final sample of households interviewed was made up of 11,372 households, which yielded a total of 15,029 young people aged 10-29. The PSU's in the SYPE sample were drawn from the EA's in the master sample at a rate of roughly 19%-20%. With the exception of the Frontier Governorates and the Luxor administrative area, the sampling rate varies in a relatively narrow range from 14% to 27%. To get good representation from the sparsely populated Frontier Governorates, we increased the sampling rate significantly, in some cases retaining all the PSU's in the master sample. Weights will be derived at the level of the administrative region to account for these varying sampling rates. ----> Selecting the Urban Slums Sub-Sample One of the objectives of SYPE is to obtain separate estimates for young people living in urban slums (referred to in the final report chapters as informal urban areas). To make sure we had enough representation of urban slums, we used a study conducted by the Information and Decision Support Center of the Egyptian Cabinet of Ministers (IDSC) to classify urban PSU's in the CAPMAS master sample into slum and non-slum areas. Deciding how to allocate urban PSUs to slum and non-slum areas was not a straightforward exercise given the unreliability of the data on the population of the slum areas. First, we had to make a decision on how to allocate the 212 urban PSUs to slum and non-slum PSUs. The most reasonable estimate of the share of slums in the urban population was close to 20%, leading us to allocate 44 of the 212 urban PSU's in the sample to slum areas. Second, we had to allocate these 44 slum PSUs to the various governorates. This allocation was done in such a way as to match as closely as possible, the distribution of the number of slum areas across governorates is shown in (Table 2 in Appendix C of the final report available among the external resources). Ideally, we should have allocated slum PSUs across governorates according to each governorate's share of slum population rather than its share in the number of slum areas. However, given the unreliable information about the population of slum areas, it was impossible to do the allocation in terms of population. This allocation decision is likely to understate the true share of slums in governorates such as Cairo, Giza and Alexandria, where the size of slums is likely to be larger than average, and overstate slum populations in governorates like Damietta, Dakahlia and Sharkia where the size of slums is probably smaller than average. Without reliable data on slum populations, it is unfortunately not possible to use weights to correct for this possible bias in the geographic distribution of slums. The harmonized sample includes the 10,916 individuals re-interviewed in 2014. ** More information on the sampling procedures is available in Appendix C in the English final report available among the external resources. Attrition was due to the individual's rejection or unavailability during the data collectors' visit or their subsequent two revisits to the same household. A total of 16,061 young people were selected to be interviewed as part of this survey. Of this group, 15,029 young people were interviewed. The harmonized sample includes the 10,916 individuals re-interviewed in 2014. The survey instruments included three separate questionnaires: 1) A household-level questionnaire; 2) An individual questionnaire that was administered to eligible young people; 3) A community-level questionnaire, which aimed at providing a profile of the localities in which young people live. Field-staff training was implemented by IDSC (the Information and Decision Support Center of the Egyptian Cabinet of Ministers) in close collaboration with the Population Council staff. Data collection was undertaken under the direct management of IDSC. ----> SYPE estimates for sampling error estimation Sampling errors along with other precision estimates have been calculated for several key survey estimates. The chosen estimates are labor-force participation rate; unemployment rate; employment to population ratio; average number of hours worked during reference weak; average total monthly earnings for wage and salaried workers in the reference 3 months; proportion of wage workers; proportion working in agriculture; proportion working in industry; proportion working in services; proportion working in private sector; proportion of employers and self-employed workers; proportion of youth who dropped out of school; proportion aspiring to migrate; proportion who migrated and returned; average hours of school including homework and tutoring; average hours of inside/outside chores including care-giving; average hours of television; proportion of youth using internet; proportion of youth participating in voluntary work; proportion of youth participating in a group for social work; proportion of youth who voted in any election; proportion participating in sports club/youth center; proportion playing any kind of sport; proportion agreeing that educating boys is more important than educating girls; proportion agreeing that a woman has the right to ask for a divorce; proportion agreeing that a man is justified to beat his wife when she argues with him; disability incidence; prevalence of chronic health conditions (diabetes, heart problems, respiratory and kidney related diseases; proportion of smokers; proportion of youth who tried drugs; proportion of girls who have undergone FGM; proportion of married youth; proportion of married youth who live with their parents (extended families); ideal number of children for married people; ideal number of children for unmarried people; average age at marriage for males; average age at marriage for females; and proportion married before 18 for females. In addition, precise estimates have been produced for the cross classifications of the above estimates with sex, location type (urban, rural, slum), region, age group, educational status and wealth index quintiles. The classifying variables were further broken down by sex so as to produce more detailed precision estimates for SYPE indicators. Nonetheless, these detailed estimates should be dealt with cautiously, especially when the sample size of some categories of the classifying variables is too small to produce reliable results. With the aim of avoiding this problem to some extent, whenever the sample size was found to be too small for some categories of the educational status (eight categories), a new educational status variable composed of only five categories was also used. The calculated precision estimates are: 1- Sampling (Standard) Error; 2- Coefficient of Variation (CV); 3- 95% Confidence Interval; and 4- Design Effect (deff). Following is the definition of each: 1- Sampling Error: is the measure of sampling variability which is the square root of the variance. 2- Coefficient of Variation: is the relative standard error. It is measured as a ratio of the sampling error of a given estimate to the value of this estimate. As a rule of thump, if CV exceeds 20% the reliability of the estimate is limited. 3- Confidence Interval: Using the sampling error, the Central Limit Theorem allows the construction of Confidence Interval of the parameter in question. Two-thirds of all possible samples with the same size and design would produce estimates within one sampling error, and 95% of all samples would produce estimates within 1.96 sampling errors. 4- Design Effect: is a measure of how much the present sampling design is worse than a Simple Random Sample (SRS) of the same size. It is the ratio of the variance of the present design to the variance of SRS of the same size. ----> Important Notes In a few cases the lower limit of the confidence interval is negative; this must be considered as being a zero. Whenever the upper limit of the confidence interval of a proportion exceeds one, this must be regarded as being 1. Expectedly, the design effect (deff) should be greater than one, yet in some cases it was found to be less than one. Most probably this problem arises due to the presence of outliers and/or smaller sample size. ** More information on the sampling errors of key indicators of SYPE is available in Appendix B in the final English report available among the external resources. Licensed datasets, accessible under conditions. OAMDI, 2019. Harmonized Survey of Young People in Egypt (HSYPE), http://erf.org.eg/data-portal/. Version 2.0 of Licensed Data Files; SYPE 2009- Population Council. Egypt: Economic Research Forum (ERF). The Economic Research Forum and the Population Council have granted the researcher access to relevant data following exhaustive efforts to protect the confidentiality of individual data. The researcher is solely responsible for any analysis or conclusions drawn from available data. (c) 2019, Economic Research Forum EGY_HSYPE_2009_V2 2019-05 Version 2

# 埃及青年协调调查2009版第二版（EGY_HSYPE_2009_V2）
本数据集为《2009年埃及青年调查》（Survey of Young People in Egypt, SYPE）的协调版第二版，该调查基于上一个十年的埃及青春期与社会变革（Adolescence and Social Change in Egypt, ASCE）调查，聚焦更广泛的年龄群体：10至29岁青年。SYPE聚焦青年五大关键人生转型：健康、教育、就业与生计、家庭组建以及公民参与。

【带黑色细边框的说明】SYPE 2009 与 SYPE 2014 为协调面板数据集。

在任何社会中，青年都承载着迈向更美好未来的期许，是国家经济与社会发展的核心构建单元，亦是最具价值的人力资源。在埃及，青年不仅是国家最为重要的发展资本，同时也是人口规模最大的群体。据2006年全国人口普查数据，约40%的埃及民众年龄处于10至29岁区间。若能施以合理投入，这一青年人口膨胀（youth bulge）现象将转化为助力国家未来发展的人口机遇。一旦埃及青年步入劳动年龄，加之老年与非劳动年龄人口占比较低，该国将收获低经济抚养比的“人口红利（demographic gift）”。然而，这一庞大的青年群体也给社会服务与劳动力市场带来了巨大压力，为发展规划带来严峻挑战。若相关制度建设缺位，将导致大量青年群体被边缘化，无法在日益全球化的经济体系中参与竞争，进而将“红利”转化为“人口负担”。

有效的规划依赖于高质量的研究。人口理事会（Population Council）致力于构建完善的证据基础，以支撑更优质的政策与项目，旨在产出切实发挥作用的研究成果。数十年来，青年始终是理事会的核心研究方向之一，相关研究聚焦青年的生存处境与所处环境，为决策者提供实证依据。1998年，人口理事会发布《成年转型》（Transitions to Adulthood），该报告基于理事会1997年开展的ASCE调查，全面刻画了埃及青年群体的画像。ASCE调查的结果已成为埃及青少年相关项目规划的重要参考资源。

鉴于埃及青年相关数据的匮乏，人口理事会开展了针对埃及青少年与青年的全面现状分析：即《埃及青年调查》（SYPE），该调查覆盖了15029名年龄介于10至29岁的全国代表性样本。SYPE收集了涵盖教育、工作、家庭组建、健康以及公民与政治参与五大关键人生转型维度的数据。SYPE是对人口理事会1997年开展的ASCE调查的跟进研究。ASCE调查聚焦10至19岁青年，其分析结果指出了埃及青年面临的六大优先议题：烟草使用、女性割礼、贫血、生长迟缓与性成熟延迟、月经管理不当，以及医疗保险利用率低下。SYPE更新了前期调查的研究结果，并拓展了研究范围。

2009年版SYPE的数据由经济研究论坛（Economic Research Forum, ERF）数据团队完成协调，与2014年版SYPE的数据进行整合，形成了可用于跨时间研究的协调可比数据集。

### 抽样调查数据[ssd]
1. 家庭样本
2. 年龄10-29岁的青年样本
版本2：由ERF筹备、用于发布的、与2014年版SYPE数据协调后的2009年版SYPE数据版本。发布时间：2019年6月

本次调查涵盖的青年关键人生转型主题包括：
1. 健康
2. 教育
3. 就业与生计
4. 国际移民
5. 婚姻与家庭组建
6. 社会议题、价值观与公民参与
7. 时间使用
8. 性别角色态度

SYPE样本为全国代表性样本，覆盖埃及所有省份，包括5个边境省份。SYPE的抽样设计具有创新性，其允许在城市样本中预先纳入贫民窟区域。本次调查覆盖全国家庭样本，并选取10-29岁的青年作为受访对象。

【带黑色细边框的说明】SYPE 2009 与 SYPE 2014 为协调面板数据集。

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## 抽样设计
2009年埃及青年调查（SYPE 2009）的样本设计兼顾全国与区域代表性。本次调查选取了约17000名10至29岁的青年作为样本，旨在为全国及四大行政区域（城市省份、下埃及省份、上埃及省份以及边境省份）的青少年与青年关键指标提供估算值，并在适用情况下为这些区域的城乡细分群体提供估算值。相关指标包括从未入学率、辍学率、童工发生率以及失业率。

基于此前相关年龄与性别群体的青年占比统计数据，我们确定11000户的全国代表性样本规模即可满足需求。为确保边境省份的估算精度，我们对这些省份进行了过度抽样。因此，SYPE样本并非自加权样本，需通过权重调整以获得准确的估算值。

## 抽样框
SYPE样本采用多阶段分层整群抽样设计。初级抽样单元（Primary Sampling Units, PSUs）从埃及中央公共动员与统计局（Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics, CAPMAS）的主样本库中选取。该主样本库为分层整群样本，包含2400个PSUs，其中城市PSUs为1080个，农村PSUs为1320个。这些PSUs基于CAPMAS根据2006年人口普查编制的覆盖全国的普查区域（Enumeration Areas, EAs）框架抽取，每个普查区域约包含1500个居住单元。

样本按照省份进行分层，每个省份在适用情况下进一步划分为城乡细分层。主样本库中各层PSUs的分布与人口分布相匹配，以实现自加权样本。为确保SYPE样本具备较广的地理分布范围并最小化设计效应，我们将每个整群的家庭数量设定为25户。为选取这25户家庭，我们从每个普查区域列出的约1500个居住单元中系统抽取25个居住单元。

为达到所需的样本规模，我们设定需抽取455个PSUs，总计样本规模为11375户家庭。主样本库与SYPE样本中各省份及城乡区域的PSUs分布详见（外部资源中可获取的最终报告附录C表1）。最终受访家庭样本为11372户，共获取15029名10至29岁的青年样本。

SYPE样本中的PSUs从主样本库的普查区域中抽取，抽取比例约为19%-20%。除边境省份与卢克索行政区外，其余区域的抽样率在14%至27%的窄区间内波动。为确保人口稀少的边境省份具备充足的样本代表性，我们大幅提高了这些区域的抽样率，部分情况下甚至保留了主样本库中的全部PSUs。我们将在行政区域层面计算权重，以平衡不同的抽样率差异。

## 城市贫民窟子样本选取
SYPE的研究目标之一是为居住在城市贫民窟（最终报告章节中称为非正规城市区域）的青年提供独立的估算值。为确保城市贫民窟群体具备足够的样本代表性，我们借助埃及内阁信息与决策支持中心（Information and Decision Support Center, IDSC）开展的一项研究，将CAPMAS主样本库中的城市PSUs划分为贫民窟区域与非贫民窟区域。

鉴于贫民窟区域人口数据的不可靠性，如何将城市PSUs分配至贫民窟与非贫民窟类别并非易事。首先，我们需要对212个城市PSUs的分配做出决策。根据最合理的估算，贫民窟人口占城市总人口的比例约为20%，因此我们从212个城市PSUs中选取44个作为贫民窟区域样本。其次，我们需要将这44个贫民窟PSUs分配至各个省份。分配原则为尽可能贴合各省份贫民窟区域的数量分布（详见外部资源中可获取的最终报告附录C表2）。

理想情况下，我们应根据各省份的贫民窟人口占比而非贫民窟区域数量占比来分配贫民窟PSUs。然而，由于贫民窟人口数据不可靠，我们无法基于人口维度进行分配。这一分配决策可能会低估开罗、吉萨与亚历山大等贫民窟规模大于平均水平的省份的贫民窟实际占比，同时高估达米埃塔、达卡利亚与沙尔基亚等贫民窟规模小于平均水平的省份的贫民窟人口占比。由于缺乏可靠的贫民窟人口数据，我们无法通过权重调整来纠正这一贫民窟地理分布的潜在偏差。

协调后的样本包含2014年重新受访的10916名个体。更多抽样程序细节可参阅外部资源中可获取的英文最终报告附录C。

失访原因包括受访者拒绝受访、调查员首次访问时无法联系到受访者，或后续两次回访仍未联系上。本次调查共选取16061名青年作为受访对象，最终成功访谈15029名青年。协调后的样本包含2014年重新受访的10916名个体。

本次调查采用三套独立问卷：1）家庭层面问卷；2）面向符合条件的青年的个人层面问卷；3）社区层面问卷，旨在刻画青年居住地区的基本概况。

调查员培训由埃及内阁信息与决策支持中心（IDSC）与人口理事会工作人员合作开展。数据收集工作由IDSC直接管理。

## SYPE关键指标抽样误差估算
我们针对多项关键调查估算值计算了抽样误差及其他精度估算指标。选定的估算指标包括：
劳动力参与率；失业率；就业人口比；参考周平均工作时长；近3个月内工薪劳动者的平均月总收入；工薪劳动者占比；农业就业占比；工业就业占比；服务业就业占比；私营部门就业占比；雇主与自雇劳动者占比；青年辍学率；希望移民的青年占比；移民后返回的青年占比；包括作业与辅导在内的平均在校时长；包括家务与照护在内的平均室内外家务时长；平均每日看电视时长；使用互联网的青年占比；参与志愿工作的青年占比；参与社会工作团体的青年占比；参与过任何选举投票的青年占比；参与体育俱乐部/青年中心的青年占比；参与过任何体育运动的青年占比；认同“教育男孩比教育女孩更重要”的青年占比；认同“女性有权提出离婚”的青年占比；认同“丈夫在妻子与其争吵时殴打妻子是合理的”的青年占比；残疾发生率；慢性健康疾病患病率（糖尿病、心脏病、呼吸系统与肾脏相关疾病）；吸烟者占比；尝试过毒品的青年占比；接受过女性割礼的女性青年占比；已婚青年占比；与父母（扩展家庭）同住的已婚青年占比；已婚人群理想子女数；未婚人群理想子女数；男性平均初婚年龄；女性平均初婚年龄；女性18岁前结婚的占比。

此外，我们还针对上述指标与性别、居住类型（城市、农村、贫民窟）、区域、年龄组、教育状况以及财富指数五分位的交叉分类提供了精确估算值。分类变量进一步按性别细分，以生成更详细的SYPE指标精度估算值。但需谨慎使用这些详细估算值，尤其是当部分分类变量的样本规模过小无法产生可靠结果时。为在一定程度上避免该问题，当教育状况（原分为8类）的部分分类样本规模过小时，我们将采用仅分为5类的教育状况变量重新计算。

本次计算的精度估算指标包括：
1. 抽样（标准）误差；
2. 变异系数（Coefficient of Variation, CV）；
3. 95%置信区间；
4. 设计效应（Design Effect, deff）。

各指标定义如下：
1. 抽样误差：衡量抽样变异性的指标，为方差的平方根。
2. 变异系数：相对标准误差，以给定估算值的抽样误差与该估算值的比值进行测算。根据经验法则，若变异系数超过20%，则该估算值的可靠性有限。
3. 置信区间：借助抽样误差，依据中心极限定理可构建待估参数的置信区间。在相同样本规模与抽样设计的前提下，约三分之二的可能样本估算值会落在±1个抽样误差的区间内，95%的样本估算值会落在±1.96个抽样误差的区间内。
4. 设计效应：衡量当前抽样设计相较于相同规模的简单随机抽样（Simple Random Sample, SRS）效率的指标，为当前设计的方差与相同规模简单随机抽样的方差之比。

## 重要说明
在少数情况下，置信区间的下限为负值，此时应将其视为0。当某一比例的置信区间上限超过1时，应将其视为1。

通常情况下，设计效应（deff）应大于1，但部分情况下其计算结果小于1。该问题大概率由异常值和/或样本规模过小导致。更多关于SYPE关键指标抽样误差的信息可参阅外部资源中可获取的英文最终报告附录B。

本数据集为授权使用数据集，需遵守相关使用条件。OAMDI，2019。《埃及青年协调调查（HSYPE）》，http://erf.org.eg/data-portal/。授权数据文件版本2.0；SYPE 2009 - 人口理事会。埃及：经济研究论坛（ERF）。经济研究论坛与人口理事会已尽最大努力保护个体数据的机密性，在此基础上向研究者开放相关数据。研究者需对基于公开数据开展的任何分析或得出的结论承担全部责任。© 2019，经济研究论坛 EGY_HSYPE_2009_V2 2019年5月 版本2