Replication Data for: Coup d'etat or Coup d'Autocracy? How Coups Impact Democratization, 1950-2008

This paper considers how coups impact democratization. Current research focuses on coups as a threat to consolidated and fledgling democracies. Policy-makers have adapted to this viewpoint by treating coups as unjustifiable maneuvers that must be curtailed, with states frequently terminating aid and IOs suspending membership following a coup. While coups clearly confound democratic consolidation, it is notable that the vast majority of coups do not happen in democracies. Therefore, we focus on authoritarian regimes in seeking to discover how coups might open paths towards democratization. We first argue that successful coups should promote democratization because leaders have incentives to democratize quickly in order to establish political legitimacy and economic growth. Second, we view failed coups as credible signals that leaders must enact meaningful reforms to remain in power. Empirical analyses strongly support the argument that coups promote democratization, particularly among states that are least likely to democratize otherwise.

本文旨在探讨政变对民主化进程的影响。现有研究多将政变视为巩固型民主与新生民主政体的威胁。政策制定者已接纳这一认知，将政变视作必须加以遏制的不正当行径，各国常会在政变发生后终止对外援助，国际组织（International Organizations，IOs）亦会暂停相关成员国资格。尽管政变确实会干扰民主巩固进程，但值得注意的是，绝大多数政变并未发生在民主政体之中。因此，本文聚焦威权政体，旨在探究政变何以开辟民主化路径。其一，本文主张成功政变可推动民主化进程：政变执政者存在快速推进民主化的动机，以此确立政治合法性并推动经济增长。其二，本文将未遂政变视为一种可信信号：执政者必须推行切实改革方能维持执政地位。实证分析有力佐证了“政变可推动民主化”这一主张，尤其在那些原本民主化可能性极低的国家中效果更为显著。