EH4OPYC_SRES_B2_SPFH500

Project: IPCC Data Distribution Centre : Third Assessment Report data sets
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been established by WMO und UNEP
to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information, relevant for the
understanding of climate change, its potential impacts and option for adaption and migration.
Projection of future trends for a number of key variables are provided through this
section of the DDC (http://www.mad.zmaw.de/IPCC_DDC/html/ddc_gcmdata.html).
This information contained in either IS92 emission scenarios (IPCC 1992), the Special
Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC 2000, SRES) or published model studies using data from
these scenarios.
Six alternative IPCC scenarios (IS92a to f) were published in the 1992 Supplementary Report
to the IPCC Assessment. These scenarios embodied a wide array of assumption affecting how
future greenhouse gas emissions might evolve in the absence of climate policies beyond
those already adoped.
The SRES scenarios have been constructed to explore future developments
in the global enviromental with special reference to the production of greenhouse gases
and aerosol precursor emission.
A set of four scenario families (A1, A2, B1, B2) have been developed that each of this
storylines describes one possible demographic, polito-economic, societal and technological
future. Model experiments, also using different forcing scenarios, were calculated
at other modeling centres.
Emissions Scenarios. 2000 ,Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart (Eds.)
Cambridge University Press, UK. pp 570
Summary: The SRES data sets were published by the IPCC in 2000 and classified
into four different scenario families (A1, A2, B1, B2).
SRES_B2 storyline describes a world in which the emphasis is on
local solutions to economic, social and enviromental sustainbility.
The global population is increasing at a lower rate than A2. It has
a intermediate level of economic development and a less rapid and
more diverse technological change than in A1 and B1.
The model consists of the atmospheric component which based on the
weather forecast model of ECMWF. The atmospheric component is the
standard model version of a 19-level hybrid sigma-pressure coordinate
system. The ocean component is a model which computes with isopycnal
coordinates.
ECHAM4/OPYC3(hhttp://cera-www.dkrz.de/IPCC_DDC/SRES/ECHAM4/echam4opyc3.html ).
This data set is an enlargement of the IPCC data set and provides
additional meteorological parameters.
The run produces monthly averaged values of the variabeles.
Changes of anthropogenic smissions of CO2, CH4, N2O and sulphur
dioxide are prescribed according to the above mentioned scenario.
The model run starts in 1990 from the results of the scenario run
GSDIO (Experiment "EH4OPYC_22723GSDIO") which has been run with
observed conditions for the time period 1860-1990.

项目：政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change）数据分发中心：第三次评估报告数据集

世界气象组织（WMO, World Meteorological Organization）与联合国环境规划署（UNEP, United Nations Environment Programme）联合设立了政府间气候变化专门委员会，旨在评估与理解气候变化、其潜在影响以及适应与迁移方案相关的科学、技术及社会经济信息。本数据分发中心（DDC, Data Distribution Centre）的此板块提供了若干关键变量的未来趋势预测（http://www.mad.zmaw.de/IPCC_DDC/html/ddc_gcmdata.html）。

本数据集所含信息要么来自IS92排放情景（IPCC 1992）、《排放情景特别报告》（SRES, Special Report on Emission Scenarios，IPCC 2000），要么来自采用上述情景数据发表的模型研究。

1992年《IPCC评估报告补充报告》中发布了六种备选IPCC情景（IS92a至IS92f）。这些情景涵盖了一系列假设，用以描述在未实施已采纳政策之外的额外气候政策的情况下，未来温室气体排放的演化路径。

SRES情景旨在探索全球环境的未来发展，尤其聚焦于温室气体和气溶胶前体物的排放。研究团队构建了四组情景家族（A1、A2、B1、B2），每个情景家族对应的叙事线均描述了一种可能的人口、社会政治经济、社会及技术发展未来。其他建模中心亦基于不同强迫情景开展了模型实验。

《排放情景》，2000年，政府间气候变化专门委员会特别报告，Nebojsa Nakicenovic与Rob Swart（主编），英国剑桥大学出版社，第570页。

摘要：SRES数据集由IPCC于2000年发布，共分为四类情景家族（A1、A2、B1、B2）。
SRES_B2叙事线所描述的世界，其核心是采用本地化方案应对经济、社会与环境可持续性挑战。该情景下全球人口增速低于A2情景，经济发展水平处于中等区间，技术变革速度较A1与B1情景更为平缓且更具多样性。

该模型包含基于欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts）数值天气预报模式开发的大气分量模块。该大气分量模块采用19层混合西格玛-气压坐标系的标准模型版本。海洋分量模块采用等密度坐标进行计算。
ECHAM4/OPYC3（http://cera-www.dkrz.de/IPCC_DDC/SRES/ECHAM4/echam4opyc3.html）。本数据集是IPCC原始数据集的扩充版本，额外提供了多项气象参数。
该模拟输出各变量的月均值。二氧化碳（CO₂）、甲烷（CH₄）、一氧化二氮（N₂O）及二氧化硫的人为排放变化均按照前述情景进行预设。模型模拟始于1990年，初始场取自情景模拟GSDIO（实验编号"EH4OPYC_22723GSDIO"）的结果，该实验采用1860-1990年的观测条件运行。