DataSheet1_Carbon markets, energy transition, and green development: a moderated dual-mediation model.xlsx

Introduction: Carbon market is an important market instrument to deal with environmental problems and an important practice of the green development concept. Among the many economic sectors in China, the energy sector is the largest emitter of carbon dioxide, therefore, the transformation of the energy sector is the focus of China’s green development.
Methods: This study used data from 211 prefecture-level cities in China from 2015 to 2020 to construct carbon market, green development, energy transition (shift to clean and low-carbon energy), and financial development indices to determine how to achieve green development beginning with a carbon emissions market and investigate how carbon markets affect environmentally friendly development from a green economics perspective. Unlike previous studies, this study uses a moderated dual mediation model for analysis to examine the indirect impact of carbon markets on green development through energy efficiency and new energy use channels of energy transition. Afterward, examine how financial development influences carbon markets and green development and the mediating effect of such development in eastern, central, and western China are performed, respectively.
Results: The empirical results of this study reveal the following: first, carbon markets directly influence green development in a favorable way. Second, energy transition creates a bridge between carbon markets as well as green development; and third, financial development plays a moderating role among carbon markets, energy transition, and green development.
Discussion: Based on the empirical findings, this study provides recommendations for promoting green development, such as enhancing information disclosure and guiding green finance development.

引言：碳市场是应对环境问题的重要市场工具，亦是绿色发展理念的重要实践路径。在中国众多经济部门中，能源部门是二氧化碳排放量最大的部门，因此能源转型是中国绿色发展的核心攻坚方向。

研究方法：本研究选取2015—2020年中国211个地级市的面板数据，构建碳市场、绿色发展、能源转型（转向清洁低碳能源）以及金融发展四大指数，以探究以碳市场为起点实现绿色发展的可行路径，并从绿色经济学视角剖析碳市场对环境友好型发展的影响机制。与既往研究不同，本研究采用有调节的双重中介模型开展实证分析，考察碳市场通过能源转型下的能源效率提升与新能源利用两条路径对绿色发展产生的间接影响。随后，本研究进一步检验了金融发展在碳市场、能源转型与绿色发展关系中的调节效应，并分别探讨了该调节效应在我国东、中、西部三大区域的异质性特征。

研究结果：本研究的实证结果揭示了三项核心结论：其一，碳市场对绿色发展具有显著的正向直接影响；其二，能源转型在碳市场与绿色发展之间发挥中介传导作用；其三，金融发展在碳市场、能源转型与绿色发展的关系链条中扮演调节角色。

讨论与政策建议：基于上述实证发现，本研究围绕推进绿色发展提出了针对性政策建议，例如强化信息披露机制、引导绿色金融发展等。