Construction duration predictive model based on factorial analysis and fuzzy logic

Abstract Setting the building construction duration for vertical residential works is made still in the study phase of economic and financial feasibility of the project and, in most cases, in an empirical way, increasing the uncertainties and the risks to fulfill the set deadline. However, there are computational intelligence tools that can contribute to reduce the degree of uncertainty. This study aimed to investigate the use of a hybrid system to estimate the deadline for vertical residential building works from design and production characteristics using factorial analysis and Fuzzy Systems. To this end, we used information of a database from the SEURB and in some buildings construction companies in Belém, a city located in the State of Pará, northern of Brazil. For the training and construction of the Fuzzy Forecast Model, data from 71 projects were used and 16 others residential buildings were used for its validation. The results showed a significant level of assertiveness, with 75% accuracy considering a range, whose upper and lower limits were calculated from MAPE and MASE. The model presented a prediction performance superior to other models already consecrated in the literature.

摘要
当前，垂直住宅建筑的施工工期设定工作往往处于项目经济与财务可行性研究阶段，且多数情况下依赖经验方法开展，这会增加按期完成既定工期目标的不确定性与风险。不过，计算智能工具可有效降低此类不确定性程度。
本研究旨在探讨结合因子分析（Factorial Analysis）与模糊系统（Fuzzy Systems），基于设计与生产特性估算垂直住宅建筑施工工期的混合系统应用方案。为此，本研究采用了来自SEURB以及巴西北部帕拉州贝伦市多家建筑施工企业的数据库信息。在模糊预测模型（Fuzzy Forecast Model）的构建与训练阶段，本研究使用了71个项目的数据，并以另外16栋住宅建筑的数据开展模型验证。研究结果显示模型具备显著的预测准确性：基于平均绝对百分比误差（Mean Absolute Percentage Error, MAPE）与平均绝对标度误差（Mean Absolute Scaled Error, MASE）计算的误差区间下，模型准确率可达75%。该模型的预测性能优于文献中已被广泛认可的其他同类模型。