Dollarization, exchange-rate anchor and international reserves

ABSTRACT Technical discussions of stabilization alternatives for Brazil have recently focused on the utilization of the exchange-rate as a nominal anchor and measures that involve a degree of dollarization of the economy. The latter would imply official sanction for the increasing substitution of foreign for national currency, a kind of decision that the experience of several Latin American countries has shown to be extremely difficult to reverse. Moreover, exchange-rate based stabilizations have often unleashed balance of payments crises. This paper reviews Argentina’s recent stabilization program and some of the lessons it may hold for Brazil. It argues that the Argentinian approach, as well as some of its variations, cannot be applied successfully in Brazil.

摘要：近期针对巴西稳定政策备选方案的技术讨论，主要聚焦于将汇率作为名义锚（nominal anchor）的应用路径，以及涉及一定程度经济美元化的相关举措。后者意味着官方将认可外币对本币的替代趋势不断加剧，而多项拉美国家的实践经验表明，这类决策一旦做出便极难逆转。此外，以汇率为锚的稳定政策往往会触发国际收支危机。本文梳理了阿根廷近期的稳定政策方案，以及其可为巴西借鉴的若干经验教训，并指出阿根廷的政策路径及其部分变体均无法在巴西成功落地。