Summary of categorical independent variables.

Adopting agricultural technologies is crucial to improve productivity and livelihoods in developing countries. While much research has focused on adoption decisions, understanding dis-adoption, when farmers stop using technology, is equally important. Studies on agricultural technology adoption often treat dis-adopters (those who initially adopted but later discontinued to use) and never-adopters (those who never adopted) as the same, using binary models to analyze farmers’ decisions. We argue that a better understanding of these decisions can be achieved by separately analyzing ’never-adoption’, ’dis-adoption’, and ’adoption.’ Using nationally representative data from three African countries, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Tanzania, we developed a multinomial logit model to analyze the adoption of improved chicken breeds. Our findings show that dis-adopters of improved chicken are different from never-adopters. Factors associated with dis-adoption include gender and education of household heads, access to training and extension services, breeding and culling practices, access to markets, use of complementary inputs, production objectives, landholding size, income diversity, and access to finance. Policies and strategies that aim to enhance sustained adoption and use of improved chicken breeds should promote a bundle of technologies, including tailored training, women empowerment, locally adapted and farmer-preferred chicken breeds, complementary inputs and services, innovative marketing strategies, and delivery models for bundles of technologies.

农业技术采纳对于提升发展中国家的农业生产力与民众生计至关重要。尽管现有大量研究聚焦于农户的技术采纳决策，但理解农户的技术退用行为——即农户停止使用此前采纳的技术的行为——同样意义重大。现有农业技术采纳相关研究常将退用者（即最初采纳技术但后续停止使用的农户）与从未采纳者视为同一群体，并通过二元模型分析农户决策。本研究认为，通过分别对“从未采纳”“技术退用”与“技术采纳”三类行为进行独立分析，可更深入地厘清农户的相关决策逻辑。本研究依托埃塞俄比亚、尼日利亚与坦桑尼亚三个非洲国家的全国代表性样本数据，构建多项Logit模型（multinomial logit model）以分析改良鸡品种的采纳行为。研究结果表明，改良鸡品种的退用者与从未采纳者存在显著差异。与改良鸡品种退用行为相关的影响因素包括：户主性别与受教育水平、农技培训与推广服务可及性、育种与畜禽淘汰操作规范、市场渠道可及性、互补性投入品使用情况、生产目标设定、土地经营规模、收入多元化程度以及融资渠道可及性。旨在推动改良鸡品种持续采纳与使用的政策与策略，应推广组合式技术服务包，其中涵盖定制化培训、女性赋权、适配本地生态且受农户青睐的鸡品种、互补性投入品与配套服务、创新型营销策略，以及组合技术的落地推广模式。