Long-term expansion of juniper populations in managed landscapes: patterns in space and time

1. Forest cover has increased world-wide over the last decade despite continuous forest fragmentation. However, a lack of long-term demographic data hinders our understanding of the spatial dynamics of colonization in remnant populations inhabiting recently protected areas or set-aside rural lands. 2. We investigated the population expansion of the Phoenician juniper (Juniperus phoenicea subsp. turbinata), which is an endozoochorous Mediterranean tree species inhabiting landscapes that have been managed for many centuries. By combining the photointerpretation of aerial photos that have been taken over the last 50 years with in situ sampling and spatial analyses of replicated plots, we estimated the population growth over the chronosequence; identified hotspots, coldspots and outliers of regeneration; and assessed the roles of key environmental factors in driving demographic expansion patterns, including elevation, initial density and distance to remnant forests. 3. Ecological factors le...

1. 过去十年间，尽管全球森林持续发生破碎化，但森林覆盖总面积仍呈增长态势。然而，长期种群统计数据的缺失，阻碍了我们对近期受保护区域或预留农地中残存种群的定植空间动态的认知。
2. 本研究针对腓尼基刺柏（Juniperus phoenicea subsp. turbinata）的种群扩张展开调查，该物种为一类经动物消化道传播的（endozoochorous）地中海木本植物，其栖息的景观已被人类管理数百年。研究结合近50年航空影像解译、原位采样与重复样地空间分析，对时间序列下的种群增长进行了估算；识别出种群更新的热点区域、冷点区域与异常值位点；同时评估了驱动种群统计扩张模式的关键环境因子的作用，包括海拔、初始种群密度以及与残存森林的距离。
3. 生态因子的……