Historical, current, and future climate niche of the red dwarf honey bee across its native range

Knowledge of spatial patterns of climatically suitable habitats, and species range contractions/expansions, or shifts due to changing climate are important to improve the effectiveness of conservation efforts. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are the primary tools currently available for evaluating species’ response to anthropogenic or natural changes. We used ENMs to evaluate potential effects of future climate changes on the distribution range of a keystone pollinator, <i>Apis florea</i> Fabricius 1787 (Apidae: Apini), across its native range. We also provided a picture of the potential paleodistribution range of this species to complement future genetic/phylogenetic studies. In all assessed scenarios (i.e past, current, and future), the species was limited to its current native range and the mean temperature of the coldest season was the most key determinative factor affecting the species’ climate niche. The projection results revealed that the extent of climatically suitable habitats of the species was probably more than current in the past time periods and will increase in the future. Our findings of the consequences of climate changes on geographical distributions of this pollinator facilitate future management efforts for the species conservation by the identification of potential habitats where <i>A. florea</i> may already exist, prioritizing key habitats within the species’ native range under the current and future conditions, and recognizing regions where it is likely to spread its range.

明晰气候适宜栖息地的空间分布格局，以及气候变化驱动下物种分布范围的收缩、扩张或迁移，对提升生物保护工作的成效至关重要。生态位模型（Ecological Niche Models, ENMs）是当前用于评估物种对人为或自然环境变化响应的主流工具。本研究借助生态位模型，评估了未来气候变化对其原生分布区内关键传粉者——小蜜蜂（Apis florea Fabricius 1787，蜜蜂科：蜜蜂族）分布范围的潜在影响。此外，我们还绘制了该物种的潜在古分布范围图谱，以辅助后续的遗传与系统发育研究。在所有评估情景（即过去、当前与未来）中，该物种的分布均局限于其现有原生分布区，且最冷月平均气温是影响其气候生态位的最关键决定性因子。模型预测结果显示，该物种在历史时期的气候适宜栖息地总面积或大于当前水平，且未来该面积还将进一步增加。本研究通过识别小蜜蜂可能已存在的潜在栖息地、优先确定当前及未来情景下该物种原生分布区内的关键栖息地，以及明确其可能扩张分布的区域，阐明了气候变化对该传粉者地理分布的影响，可为该物种的后续保护管理工作提供科学参考。