DataSheet_5_Global thyroid cancer incidence trend and age-period-cohort model analysis based on Global Burden of Disease Study from 1990 to 2019.csv

BackgroundIn view of the rapid increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer (TC) and the spread of overdiagnosis around the world, the quantitative evaluation of the effect of age, period and birth cohort on the incidence of TC, and the analysis of the role of different factors in the incidence trend can provide scientific basis and data support for the national health departments to formulate reasonable prevention and treatment policies.
MethodsThe study collated the global burden disease study data of TC incidence from 1990 to 2019, and used APC model to analyze the contribution of age, period and birth cohort to the incidence trend of TC.
ResultsThere was an obvious unfavorable upward trend in terms of age and cohort effect all over the world. Since 2007, the growth rate of risk slowed down and the risk in female even decreased since 2012, which mainly contributed to the developed countries. In all SDI countries, 2002 is the dividing point of risk between male and female. In 2019, The global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of TC in the 5 SDI countries all showed a significant upward trend, with the largest upward trend in the middle SDI countries.
ConclusionThe trend of rapid increase in the incidence of TC has begun to slow down, but the global incidence of TC has obvious gender and regional/national heterogeneity. Policy makers should tailor specific local strategies to the risk factors of each country to further reduce the burden of TC.

背景：鉴于全球范围内甲状腺癌（Thyroid Cancer, TC）发病率快速攀升以及过度诊断现象的蔓延，对年龄、时期及出生队列对甲状腺癌发病率的影响进行定量评估，并分析各类因素在发病率变化趋势中的作用，可为各国卫生部门制定合理的防治政策提供科学依据与数据支撑。方法：本研究整理了1990年至2019年全球甲状腺癌发病率的疾病负担研究数据，并采用年龄-时期-队列（Age-Period-Cohort, APC）模型，分析年龄、时期与出生队列对甲状腺癌发病率变化趋势的贡献度。结果：全球范围内，年龄效应与队列效应均呈现显著的不良上升趋势。2007年以来，该风险的增长速率有所放缓，而自2012年起女性风险甚至出现下降，这一现象主要由发达国家主导。在所有社会人口学指数（Socio-demographic Index, SDI）国家中，2002年为男女甲状腺癌发病风险的分界点。2019年，5个SDI国家的甲状腺癌全球年龄标准化发病率（Age-Standardized Incidence Rate, ASIR）均呈现显著上升趋势，其中中等SDI国家的上升幅度最大。结论：甲状腺癌发病率快速攀升的趋势已有所放缓，但全球甲状腺癌发病率仍存在显著的性别与地区/国家异质性。政策制定者应针对各国的风险因素制定个性化的本土防控策略，以进一步减轻甲状腺癌的疾病负担。