Plant-Level Health Benefits from Decarbonizing the Iron and Steel Industry in China

Decarbonizing the iron and steel industry (ISI) reduces air pollutant emissions, yielding substantial public health cobenefits. Existing assessments fail to account for plant-level heterogeneity in production routes and geographic settingscritical determinants of health impactshindering the formulation of targeted decarbonization strategies that maximize health gains. Here, by integrating a facility-level emission inventory with inverse atmospheric modeling, we estimate that the Chinese ISI emits 1.56 Pg of CO2 and 0.85 Tg of PM2.5 annually, with 147,000 (IQR: 121,000–184,000) annual PM2.5-attributable premature deaths linked to ISI emissions, and the health burdens varying by 77,500-fold across individual plants. Blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) processes impose 3.8 times higher mortality intensity than electric arc furnaces (EAFs) (172 vs 45 deaths per 1000 Gg steel produced), with 80% of mortality concentrated in 21% of plantspredominantly large BF-BOF complexes in densely populated eastern China. Strategically relocating 30 Tg eastern BF-BOF capacity (3.6% of the national total) to scrap-based EAFs in low-carbon southwestern power grids could prevent 12,300 (IQR: 9500–16,100) annual deaths (8.4% reduction), generating USD 24.5 (IQR: 20.0–30.4) billion in combined climate-health benefits. Natural gas-based direct reduced iron-electric arc furnace (DRI-EAF) integration offers a scrap-independent alternative, achieving ∼50% lower mortality than BF-BOF. These findings advance targeted strategies to optimize health outcomes during ISI decarbonization in China.

钢铁工业（Iron and Steel Industry, ISI）的脱碳行动可减少大气污染物排放，同时带来可观的公共健康协同效益。现有评估未考虑生产路径与地理区位的厂级异质性——而这正是影响健康效应的关键决定因素，进而阻碍了可最大化健康收益的针对性脱碳策略制定。本研究通过整合设施级排放清单与反向大气模拟模型，估算得出中国钢铁工业每年排放1.56拍克（Petagram, Pg）二氧化碳与0.85太克（Teragram, Tg）细颗粒物（PM2.5）；与钢铁工业排放相关的、由PM2.5导致的年均过早死亡人数达14.7万（四分位距Interquartile Range, IQR：12.1万–18.4万），且不同单个工厂间的健康负担差异可达77500倍。高炉-碱性氧气炉（Blast Furnace-Basic Oxygen Furnace, BF-BOF）工艺的死亡强度是电弧炉（Electric Arc Furnace, EAF）的3.8倍（每生产1000吉克（Gigagram, Gg）钢材分别对应172例和45例死亡），且80%的死亡病例集中在21%的工厂中——这些工厂主要是中国东部人口稠密地区的大型BF-BOF联合企业。若将东部地区30太克产能的BF-BOF产能，战略性搬迁至以废钢为原料的电弧炉并布局于低碳西南电网，则可避免每年1.23万（IQR：0.95万–1.61万）例过早死亡（降幅达8.4%），并带来总计245亿（IQR：20.0–30.4）亿美元的气候与健康协同收益。基于天然气的直接还原铁-电弧炉（Direct Reduced Iron-Electric Arc Furnace, DRI-EAF）整合工艺提供了一种不依赖废钢的替代方案，其死亡强度较BF-BOF工艺低约50%。本研究结果可为中国钢铁工业脱碳过程中优化健康收益的针对性策略提供支撑。