Understanding Long-Term Energy Use and Carbon Dioxide Emission in the USA

We compile a database of energy uses, energy sources, and carbon dioxide emissions for the USA for the period 1850-2002. We use a model to extrapolate the missing observations on energy use by sector. Overall emission intensity rose between 1850 and 1917, and fell between 1917 and 2002. The leading cause for the rise in emission intensity was the switch from wood to coal, but population growth, economic growth, and electrification contributed as well. After 1917, population growth, economic growth and electrification pushed emissions up further, and there was no net shift from fossil to non-fossil energy sources. From 1850 to 2002, emissions were reduced by technological and behavioural change (particularly in transport, manufacturing and households), structural change in the economy, and a shift from coal to oil and gas. These trends are stronger than electrification, explaining the fall in emissions relative to GDP.

本研究构建了1850年至2002年美国的能源消费、能源结构与二氧化碳排放数据库。我们通过建模方法对分部门能源消费的缺失观测值进行外推补全。整体来看，排放强度在1850年至1917年间呈上升趋势，1917年至2002年间则逐步下降。推动排放强度上升的首要因素是能源结构从木材向煤炭的转型，同时人口增长、经济扩张与电气化进程也起到了助推作用。1917年之后，人口增长、经济扩张与电气化进一步推高了排放量，且能源结构并未出现从化石能源向非化石能源的净转型。1850年至2002年间，技术与行为变革（尤其在交通、制造与家庭领域）、经济结构转型，以及能源结构从煤炭向石油与天然气的转型，共同推动了排放量的削减。上述趋势的影响强度超过电气化进程，由此解释了单位GDP排放量的下降趋势。