Replication Data for: Robust Solar Radiation Modification without Hindering Abatement Actions under Deep Uncertainty

There is a growing discussion on Solar Radiation Modification (SRM), a geoengineering technique that achieve rapid global cooling at relatively low cost compared to abatement. However, deep uncertainties about the cooling efficiency and potential damages of SRM, as well as concerns that SRM impedes abatement actions, limit its ability to supplement climate policies. Therefore, a useful robust way to take advantage of SRM under deep uncertainty is to explore SRM policies without hindering abatement actions by incorporating decision analysis. We first assess the impacts of SRM deployment strategy choices on abatement policies and the SRM policy. We also develop a framework that combines Min-Max Regret (MMR) decision analysis with integrated assessment model (IAM) of endogenous SRM. The results suggest that (1) SRM strategy choices significantly change the optimal abatement action, and the changes of abatement action is even opposite under different strategies. The delayed SRM strategy leads to an stringent near-term abatement policy, while unrestricted SRM strategy leads to the lenient abatement action. (2) Abatement actions combined with SRM policies can result in little additional welfare losses in achieving the temperature target. However, achieving temperature targets through SRM alone rather than combining with abatement actions is possible in some cases. (3) The intensity of robust SRM policy under the MMR rule is 10-15% lower than that of deterministic solution. Robust SRM may achieve 1.5 °C and 2 °C temperature targets (the magnitude depends on SRM cooling efficiency).

当前学界关于太阳辐射修正（Solar Radiation Modification, SRM）的讨论日益增多，该技术是一种相较于气候减排成本更低、可快速实现全球降温的地球工程手段。然而，关于太阳辐射修正的降温效率与潜在损害存在深层不确定性，加之其可能阻碍减排行动的担忧，限制了其作为气候政策补充工具的潜力。因此，在深层不确定性情境下利用太阳辐射修正的有效稳健路径，是通过融入决策分析，探索不会阻碍减排行动的太阳辐射修正政策。本研究首先评估了太阳辐射修正部署策略选择对减排政策及太阳辐射修正政策的影响；同时构建了一套将最小最大遗憾（Min-Max Regret, MMR）决策分析与内生太阳辐射修正综合评估模型（integrated assessment model, IAM）相结合的分析框架。研究结果显示：（1）太阳辐射修正策略的选择会显著改变最优减排行动，不同策略下减排行动的变化甚至完全相反。延迟型太阳辐射修正策略会催生更为严格的短期减排政策，而无限制的太阳辐射修正策略则对应更为宽松的减排行动。（2）将减排行动与太阳辐射修正政策相结合，在实现温度目标的过程中仅会带来极少量额外福利损失。不过在部分场景下，仅通过太阳辐射修正而非结合减排行动即可实现温度目标。（3）基于最小最大遗憾准则的稳健太阳辐射修正政策强度，较确定性解低10%至15%。稳健的太阳辐射修正策略可实现1.5℃与2℃的温度目标，具体幅度取决于太阳辐射修正的降温效率。