Economic Shrinking

This paper examines the role of economic shrinking in the process of long term economic growth over the last millennia, the last two centuries, and the last 70 years. The paper's main conclusion is that economic shrinking, both the rate at which economies shrink when they shrink and the frequency that they shrink (i.e., real per capita GDP declines) is a more important determinant of economic growth over the long term than the rate of growth when economies grow. In fact, economies in the developed world actually grow more slowly when they grow than poorer economies.Several possible reasons for the decline in shrinking and the associated increase in economic stability are considered and found wanting as explanations: structural change, demography, technological change, and stabilization policy. The paper concludes that the ultimate source of the reduction in shrinking is institutions.

本文考察了近千年、近两百年及近70年来，经济收缩在长期经济增长进程中所扮演的角色。本文的核心结论为：经济收缩——涵盖经济体收缩时的速率与收缩发生频率（即实际人均国内生产总值（real per capita GDP）下滑）——是长期经济增长更为关键的决定因素，其重要性远超经济体扩张阶段的增速。事实上，发达经济体在扩张阶段的增速实则低于欠发达经济体。本文考量了经济收缩频次下降与经济稳定性提升的若干潜在解释因素，包括结构变迁、人口结构变化、技术变革与经济稳定政策，但均被证实不足以作为合理解释。本文最终得出结论：经济收缩频次下降的根本根源在于制度。