Data from: Modeling winter moth Operophtera brumata egg phenology: nonlinear effects of temperature and developmental stage on developmental rate

Understanding the relationship between an insect's developmental rate and temperature is crucial to forecast insect phenology under climate change. In the winter moth Operophtera brumata timing of egg-hatching has severe fitness consequences on growth and reproduction as egg-hatching has to match bud burst of the host tree. In the winter moth, as in many insect species, egg development is strongly affected by ambient temperatures. Here we use laboratory experiments to show for the first time that the effect of temperature on developmental rate depends on the stage of development of the eggs. Building on this experimental finding, we present a novel physiological model to describe winter moth egg development in response to temperature. Our model, a modification of the existing Sharpe−Schoolfield biophysical model, incorporates the effect of developmental stage on developmental rate. Next we validate this model using a 13-year data-set from winter moth eggs kept under ambient conditions and compared this validation with a degree day model and with the Sharpe−Schoolfield model, which lacks the interaction between temperature and developmental stage on developmental rate. We show that accounting for the interaction between temperature and developmental stage improved the predictive power of the model and contributed to our understanding of annual variation in winter moth egg phenology. As climate change leads to unequal changes in temperatures throughout the year, a description of insect development in response to realistic patterns of temperature rather than an invariable degree-day approach will help us to better predict future responses of insect phenology, and thereby insect fitness, to climate change.

明晰昆虫发育速率与温度之间的关联，对于预测气候变化情境下的昆虫物候至关重要。对于冬尺蛾（Operophtera brumata）而言，卵孵化的时间节点会对其生长与繁殖产生极强的适合度（fitness）影响，因为其卵孵化时间必须与寄主植物的芽萌动同步。与多数昆虫物种一致，冬尺蛾的卵发育过程极易受到环境温度的调控。本研究首次通过室内实验证实：温度对发育速率的影响取决于卵的发育阶段。基于该实验发现，我们构建了一款全新的生理学模型，用以描述冬尺蛾卵发育对温度的响应规律。本模型是对现有夏普-斯考菲尔德生物物理模型（Sharpe−Schoolfield biophysical model）的改进，纳入了发育阶段对发育速率的调控效应。随后，我们利用覆盖13年的数据集（该数据集来自饲养于自然环境条件下的冬尺蛾卵）对该模型进行验证，并将该验证结果与积温模型（degree day model）以及未考虑温度与发育阶段交互作用的夏普-斯考菲尔德模型进行对比。研究结果表明，纳入温度与发育阶段的交互作用能够提升模型的预测能力，同时有助于我们理解冬尺蛾卵物候的年度变异规律。鉴于气候变化会导致全年温度出现不均衡变化，相较于固定积温模型，基于真实温度模式的昆虫发育响应描述，将有助于我们更精准地预测昆虫物候乃至昆虫适合度对气候变化的未来响应。