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S7. Fitting Cumberland's data with model instances from the alternative parameterisation from Anchoring the mean generation time in the SEIR to mitigate biases in ℜ<sub>0</sub> estimates due to uncertainty in the distribution of the epidemiological delays

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In this appendix, we illustrate the procedure to infer the basic reproduction number (ℜ0) of influenza during the second wave of the 1918 pandemic in Cumberland (Maryland). Specifically, we fit four model candidates from the alternative parameterisation to incidence data. The inference process yields almost identical ℜ0 estimates, regardless of the infectious period distribution. Furthermore, we compare the results of the alternative parameterisation to those of the traditional one.

本附录将阐明1918年大流感第二波疫情期间,美国马里兰州坎伯兰地区流感基本再生数(basic reproduction number, ℜ₀)的推断流程。具体而言,我们基于替代参数化方案,针对发病数据拟合了四组候选模型。无论传染期分布形式如何,该推断流程得到的ℜ₀估计结果均几乎一致。此外,我们还将该替代参数化方案的结果与传统参数化方案的结果进行了对比。

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2023-07-21
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