Replication Data for: Strategic Voting Revisited

In this study, we examine whether strategic voting—in which a voter seeks to maximize the expected payoff from casting a ballot—occurred among late voters in the 2018 Taipei City mayoral election. This multi-candidate mayoral contest was noteworthy because ballot-counting started before all the votes had been cast, with preliminary results being leaked to the media. Theoretically, having access to real-time updates of voting figures could have influenced the decision of voters who were still in line waiting to cast their ballots. Analysis and reconstruction of aggregate polling data, however, demonstrate that there was very little (if any) strategic voting among these late voters on election day, even if they had information that might have induced them to vote strategically.

本研究旨在探讨2018年台北市市长选举中，迟投选民是否存在策略性投票（strategic voting）行为——策略性投票指选民为最大化投票的预期收益而采取的投票策略。本次多候选人市长选举因在全部选票完成投出前便启动计票，且初步计票结果被泄露给媒体而广受关注。从理论层面来看，实时获取投票数据更新，可能会对仍在排队等候投票的选民的决策产生影响。然而，对汇总投票数据的分析与重构结果表明，即便这些迟投选民掌握了可能诱使其采取策略性投票的信息，选举当日他们当中也几乎不存在（即便存在也极为有限）策略性投票行为。