Table 6_Research on the dynamic evolution and differential analysis of the development efficiency of China’s marine economic circles.xlsx

This study focuses on the economic development efficiency of China’s three major marine economic zones, aiming to explore their dynamic evolution rules and regional disparity characteristics, thereby providing theoretical foundations and practical guidance for promoting sustainable marine economic development. Based on panel data from 11 coastal provinces in China (2012-2021), the research employs a three-stage super-efficient slack-based measure (SBM) model with undesirable outputs to measure marine economic development efficiency Additionally, it uses Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method to systematically investigate regional disparities and their sources, and applies the kernel density estimation to analyze dynamic evolutionary characteristics. The study reveals three key findings: First, compared with the first stage, the measured marine economic development efficiency of China in the third stage generally increases, yet the rankings of provinces change to varying degrees. Second, it exhibits significant “polarization effects” among the three marine economic zones, each displaying distinct developmental patterns and distribution characteristics. Third, there is substantial spatial disequilibrium across the zones, with inter - regional differences constituting the primary source of developmental imbalances. These findings not only clarify the spatial configuration characteristics of China’s marine economic development but also provide crucial evidence for devising differentiated regional development policies.

本研究聚焦中国三大海洋经济区的经济发展效率，旨在探究其动态演化规律与区域差异特征，从而为推动海洋经济可持续发展提供理论依据与实践指引。本研究基于中国11个沿海省份2012-2021年的面板数据，采用含非期望产出的三阶段超效率SBM（Slack-Based Measure）模型测算海洋经济发展效率；此外，运用达古姆基尼系数（Dagum Gini Coefficient）分解法系统探究区域差异及其来源，并采用核密度估计（Kernel Density Estimation）法分析动态演化特征。本研究得出三项核心结论：其一，相较于第一阶段，第三阶段测算得到的中国海洋经济发展效率整体有所提升，但各省域排名均出现不同程度的变动；其二，三大海洋经济区间存在显著的‘极化效应’，各经济区展现出差异化的发展模式与分布特征；其三，各经济区之间存在显著的空间非均衡性，区间差异是发展失衡的主要来源。上述结论不仅明晰了中国海洋经济发展的空间格局特征，同时为制定差异化区域发展政策提供了重要依据。